The Morning Briefing: Polls Look Great for Republicans, but Can They Be Trusted?

AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

Top O’ the Briefing

Happy Monday, dear Kruiser Morning Briefing friends. Charlene didn’t like the person she became whenever someone overemphasized the “t” in “often.”


Two weeks from tomorrow, we will, in theory, have a good read on the political pulse of the United States of America. In olden times, we would have known for sure on election night. Here in the 21st century, it takes about 15 weeks for all the votes to be counted in virtually every large city that is run by Democrats.

If a Republican is leading on election night, that is.

If we are to believe the polls, the Dems are going to have their hands full pulling magical mail-in votes out of the ether to save their lying backsides next month.

For the past couple of weeks, poll after poll has been trending red. A couple of recent ones have some real surprises.

First up, the Pennsylvania Senate race, which Matt wrote about over the weekend:

Dr. Mehmet Oz, the Republican running for the Senate in Pennsylvania, has pulled ahead of his Democrat opponent John Fetterman, a new poll shows.

With only two weeks left until the 2022 midterm elections, a poll of 1,013 likely voters conducted by market research firm Wick found that Oz, who has trailed Fetterman in the polls throughout the campaign, now leads Fetterman by 4.5 points.

Donald Trump’s endorsement of Oz was a real head-scratcher for a lot of conservatives. The celebrity game is best left to the Democrats, after all.

Or so it used to be.

Most didn’t give Oz a snowball’s chance in Hillary Clinton’s House of winning. That includes a lot of Republicans. It would be nice if he could pad that lead in a few more polls, as Philadelphia is the worst of the offenders when it comes to the manufacturing of magic mail-in ballots.


Athena wrote a post about some stunning news regarding an important gubernatorial race:

The closer Election Day gets, the more evident it becomes that last summer was the high water mark for Democrats this election cycle. Republican candidates are now surging in earnest, in many cases overtaking their Democrat opponents. This is especially magnificent to behold in several high-profile races for governor, in which Republicans are starting to put daylight between themselves and the Democrats who have been torturing constituents with regressive left-wing policy.

Few Democrat governors are more deserving of going down in flames on Nov. 8 than scary fascist Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. The Mich. witch famously banned outdoor activities such as golf and landscaping — to the extent that aisles of gardening supplies were ordered closed off in large stores that were otherwise open — as part of her China-strength stay-at-home executive orders during the COVID times.

Whitmer really loved her emergency powers, and Michiganders remember. On Friday, RealClearPolitics projected that Gretchen would suffer a defeat to Republican Tudor Dixon by nearly three points. Flip!

If this holds, it may be the biggest upset of the entire election. Whitmer has had the advantage of a massive war chest throughout the campaign. The Republican primary for governor in Michigan was a hot mess, with two of the most prominent candidates being disqualified for turning in fake signatures. I’ve got some suspicions about that, but this is not the place to go into them.


If Tudor Dixon can pull this off, the Michigan GOP should make sure that she is taken care of for life. As Athena wrote, Whitmer needs to be gone. WAY back in April of 2020, the Morning Briefing headline was “Is Gretchen Whitmer Satan, Stalin, or Both?

There are no wrong answers to that, by the way.

This is all encouraging but we would do well to remember that the polls have been spectacularly wrong on so many occasions. How wrong? This wrong:

Thankfully, Florida Republicans didn’t get demoralized by that and turned out to give DeSantis a narrow victory.

Early spoiler alert: DeSantis’s victory next month won’t be narrow.

Then there is the 2016 American presidential election. On Election Day, most polls had Hillary Clinton as a lock for being the next president of the United States, the next Queen of England, and the new host of The Price Is Right, should Drew Carey decide to retire early.

Things are, however, different when it’s the Republicans who are being favored in the polls. Pollsters tend to oversample Democrats, often greatly. That’s how the Hillary polling debacle of 2016 came about. If a poll is going to be wrong, it is almost always going to be wrong in favor of the Democrats. The point remains that they can really be wrong though.


People on both sides of the aisle tend to have a love/hate relationship with election polls. When they look good for our side, we can’t shut up about them. When they don’t, we scream to the heavens that polling is mierda de toro.

There is one thing that Republicans need to remember when it comes to the polls: no lead is ever big enough. Back in the day, I use to say that Republican candidates needed to be “outside the margin of ACORN.” Here in 20022, they need to be outside the margin of the Democrats’ Magic Mail-In Ballot Machine.

Way outside.

It’s Mailbag of Magnificence time tomorrow. There’s still time to get a note to me and join in the reindeer games.

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