Somebody turned the Kremlin bluster machine up to 11 following President Donald Trump's 50-day ultimatum to agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine — or else.
My PJ Media colleague Matt Margolis covered the "or else" earlier today, but the executive summary is that unless Moscow agrees to a ceasefire within 50 days, Trump will impose a 100% tariff on exports from Russia and countries that buy Russian oil — targeting major buyers like China, India, Brazil, Turkey, and Europe, too. There's also a heavy sanctions bill working its way through the Senate that Trump says he's warming to.
The new tariffs go hand-in-glove with Trump's promise on Sunday to resume weapons shipments to Ukraine worth "billions and billions" of dollars.
Because some regimes require a stick and a bigger stick to do the right thing.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni — that country's answer to "How do you say 'Trump' in Italian?" — said Trump's “change of posture” towards Russia is “obviously welcome.”
The Kremlin's first response was exactly what everyone should have expected:
JUST IN: Russia has threatened to continue its military operation if its position is ignored. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said Russia rejects any demands or ultimatums in response to Trump’s new plan, warning that if Moscow’s willingness to negotiate is not met, its…
— GeoInsider (@InsiderGeo) July 15, 2025
Deputy chair of Russia's security council, Dmitry Medvedev, tried his hand at — what is that, haiku?
Trump issued a theatrical ultimatum to the Kremlin.
— Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) July 15, 2025
The world shuddered, expecting the consequences.
Belligerent Europe was disappointed.
Russia didn’t care.
After taking a few more hours to think it over, unnamed Kremlin officials leaked to Reuters that they won't back down:
BREAKING 🇷🇺 : Three Kremlin sources tell Reuters:
— Zaid Ahmd (@realzaidzayn) July 15, 2025
Putin will not halt the war under Western pressure and believes Russia can withstand further sanctions, may take more territory as Russian forces advance.
Trump responded to bluster with bluster, at least according to the usual White House "people in the know." He reportedly asked Zelensky "whether he could strike Moscow if the U.S. provided long-range weapons."
Two can play the bluster game, and, as I reported previously, Trump plays it well.
During his first term, Trump succeeded in giving Putin second thoughts about invading Ukraine. If you don't remember this story, it's a personal favorite — and I don't mind repeating it briefly here. Trump once recalled a conversation he had a while back with golfer John Daly:
"They’re all saying, ‘Oh, he’s a nuclear power. It’s like they’re afraid of him,’” Trump told Daly, referring to Putin, in the call posted on Instagram Friday.
“You know, he was a friend of mine,” Trump preened. “I got along great with him.”
But Trump insisted on the call that he also played tough with his buddy. If Putin invaded Ukraine, Trump claimed he warned him: “We’re gonna hit Moscow.” And “he sort of believed me, like 5%, 10%,” Trump added. “That’s all you need."
Russian strongman Vladimir Putin has yet to make any public statements. "I'm disappointed in him, but I'm not done with him," Trump told the BBC on Monday.
Secondary tariffs are necessary because the U.S. hardly buys anything from Russia. In fact, hardly anybody buys anything from Russia aside from energy, because Russia doesn't produce much worth buying.
Historically, Russians seem more than willing to endure severe economic punishment that Westerners never would when their country's prestige is on the line, and I'm not certain that there's much left we can do with tariffs to harm Russia's economy. My impression is that Trump thinks hitting Russia's lifeline — China — with secondary tariffs will encourage Beijing to help Putin see the light.
On the other hand, Capital Economics' commodities expert Kieran Tompkins argued that "knocking out half of Russia’s crude and petroleum exports could reduce export revenues by $75 billion or so," creating a "fiscal crisis." Interest rates at 20% or higher have failed to squash Russian inflation, caused by wartime production needs and labor shortages.
Where it all leads is anyone's guess. My guess is that if Putin agrees to Trump's deadline, Trump will first have to offer him some way to save face. "Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across," is Sun Tzu's timeless advice, and if there's anyone who knows how to build stuff out of gold, it's Donald Trump.
Pray that he does it, too — this stupid war has gone on long enough.
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