The Morning Briefing: Trump Needs to Be Outside the Margin of Magic Mail-In Ballots

Top O' the Briefing

Happy Friday, dear Kruiser Morning Briefing friends. Kedwyllic was always a hit with his "Cottage Cheese and Funyuns Delight" at the monthly gathering of the Loretta Swit Lighthearted Zealots Society.

There has been a lot good energy among Trump supporters in the past couple of weeks. Everyone has really been riding a high after JD Vance's stellar performance in the vice-presidential debate on Tuesday. It's a good feeling to have in the final weeks leading up to an election.

If we don't let it get to out of control.

It's been a few weeks since I last wrote about our maddening love/hate relationship with the polls. They're political crack in an election year, and I've given up trying to avoid them. Most people have. Let's lean into one here for a moment.

This is from something that Kevin wrote yesterday:

What a week it's been for Trump, Vance, and We the People. Commies... not so much.
The Trafalgar Group released a poll on Wednesday showing Trump has increased his lead in the vital swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin.
The recent poll shows Trump beating Harris by 2.2 points in Michigan, with Trump scoring 47.5% of the votes to Harris's 45.3%.
On August 31, the Trafalgar Group had Trump beating Harris 47% to 46.6%, a lead of only 0.4%.
Trump is winning in Wisconsin as well, topping the Kackler by 47.1% to 46%. The poll had Trump at 47.3% to Harris's 46.2%.
“These numbers are the best we’ve seen for Trump in this election cycle. If this momentum holds, he could easily win by a significant margin," a polling source stated.

That's all very encouraging. Stephen Green and I have discussed many times on "Five O'Clock Somewhere" that we believe the polls are greatly oversampling Democrats in service of the Kamala myth. That makes Trump's uptick in the swing states even more impressive.

Back in the Tea Party days, I was fond of saying that a Republican needed to be at least four percentage points ahead of the Democrat to be outside the margin of ACORN. These days, I say outside the margin of the Magic Mail-In Ballot Machine. It doesn't roll off of the tongue as easily, but it's accurate.

I've occasionally written in the last year that the Republican now needs a six-point lead to be clear of votes that may be manufactured in the night. That was because I was really jaded after the 2020 election. I'm still jaded, but I think I'm going back to my original four-point cushion.

That means I can't take comfort in Trump being ahead by a couple of points in the swing states. Now, if VodkaPundit and I are right about the oversampling of Democrats, those margins are low. I'm not sure they're two or more points low, however.

I decided to write about this today because I've been seeing some exuberance in conservative media that I think borders on irrational. True, I'm happy that Trump is ahead right now, but I'm not going to get carried away by optimism. I can think of no worse way to wrap up this election than by finally passing out from exhaustion in the wee hours of November 6 with Trump leading in all the swing states, only to wake up and see votes for Harris "Poof!" into existence in all of them.

Let's all hope that not only are the Democrats being oversampled in the polls but also — as many believe — Trump supporters are being coy with the pollsters. I know I've met some gung-ho Trump supporters in places I didn't expect to. The real sleeper demographic in this election may be the youth vote that the Dems can usually count on.

Relevant Apocalypse No — Resisting the Dems' Attempts to Make Us Despair

Look, Trump might very well steamroll this thing. It has to be quick, though. We all know how the story goes if it's tight on election night, and they suddenly realize there are a kajillion mail-in ballots that haven't been counted in Philadelphia and Atlanta.

Yeah, I get tired thinking about all of this, too.

Click the button below to get the Morning Briefing emailed to you every weekday. Have your coffee with me, people. It's free and it supports conservative media!

Everything Isn't Awful

Puppies were annoyed to be woken up from their naps.

Puppies meeting kittens for the first time.. 😊 pic.twitter.com/NnXyNOE2vS
— Buitengebieden (@buitengebieden) October 3, 2024

PJ Media

Me. I Really Hope Jill Biden Remains President Until After the Election

VodkaPundit. FEMA Is Out of Money After Helene, and You'll Never Guess Where It Went

Kevin and Kruiser! 'Unwoke' Free-for-All #76: We Get No Respect, Plus Our Favorite Conspiracies This Week

Jack Smith Trump Filing Argues That Free Speech Is Criminal

Landslide, HO! Pollsters Suggest Trump Could Pummel Harris in November

VodkaPundit, Part Deux. Let a Thousand Deep Fakes Bloom!

We May Be on the Brink of a Full-Blown Recession

A Storm, a Strike, and a War Are All Working Against the Harris Campaign

Exclusive: Expert Slams ‘Green’ Energy as Helping China, Hurting U.S.

VodkaPundit, Part Trois. Did Hamas Just Ghost the Biden-Harris Administration?

Yes, Gov. Kemp Blasted Biden-Harris Admin's Hurricane Helene Response

VDH. How to Blow Up the Middle East War in Five Easy Steps

Fact Check: True. Liz Cheney Has Lost Her Mind

Longshoremen Union Boss Lives Large While Boasting About Crippling the Economy

She Survived Nazism and Communism, but Eva Edl Could Die in Prison for Pro-Life Protests

What Is Kamala's Perfect Number for Migrant Criminals?

Kamala Harris’s Husband Accused of Domestic Violence: What Will Be the PR Fallout?

The Greatest PR Mistake Pete Rose Ever Made

Townhall Mothership

Schlichter. JD Vance’s Debate Performance Shows This Guy Is a Conservative Superstar

Watch What Happens When a Fox News Reporter Asks Dock Workers If They Support Kamala

Firefighters Union Deals a Major Blow to Kamala

TSA Failed to Assess Risks Associated With Releasing Illegal Aliens Into US Without ID

Latest 'Ghost Gun' Claims Have Tons of Problems

Cam&Co. Massachusetts 2A Advocate: Welcome to the State of Confusion

Repeated Arrest of Memphis Teen Shows City Needs Crime Control, Not Gun Control

I've done a gig there. No Time Like the Present for the UK to Give Away *gulp* Diego Garcia...

Breastfeeding? US Shipping Ports Are Backed Up Again. Where is Mayor Pete?

Has the FBI Begun Investigating Nuzzi-RFK-Lizza Triangle?

Blocked Again: Federal Judge Halts Biden Student Loan Forgiveness

The Reactions to this 'Body Language' Take on Vance's Beard and Walz's Eyes Are Hilarious

Dockworkers Strike, Day 3: Kamala Loves the Strikers, but the Feeling Isn't Mutual

NYT: Could Donald Trump Really Use the DOJ to Jail His Rivals?

That's Not Funny - Dave Itzkoff is Not Amused - Hilarious Thread Ensues

NBC News: GOP Likely to Appoint More Justices if Trump Wins

VIP

Become part of the PJ Media VIP party by subscribing here. Use promo code KRUISERMB to receive a WHOPPING 50% discount. Trust me, we’re having fun over here.

Kruiser's 'BTB': Your Pre-Election Reminder That HEROIN IS BAD

The Three Major Policy Lies of the United Nations

This Could Turn Out to Be the Biden-Harris Regime’s Costliest Mistake Ever

Tim Walz's Constant Lies Are a Problem for the Harris Campaign

Pedestrian Deaths Are Rising. Should the Government Force Automakers to Downsize Cars?

Ozempic Manufacturers vs. Port Strikers