In my earliest days working in my specialty of crisis management, one of the things I learned to do was the “bar stool survey,” although it doesn’t have to take place in a bar or on a stool. It’s the grassroots research equivalent of the man-on-the-street interview that the news media likes so much, only this is a little more discreet and much more in-depth.
More to the point, if you want to know how people feel on the ground, you have to meet them where they are and talk to them. You have to find venues where they’re receptive to having long conversations with a total stranger. Thus, the bar stool. But you can get the same sort of insights from sitting in a barber shop or a diner, or in my case earlier today, at an old-school, MAGA country, auto mechanic’s shop, where I had my oil changed, along with some other routine maintenance.
Before getting into detail on that, it’s important to note that anytime I’ve done this, I don’t record the conversation, take names, and I certainly don’t share names or any other identifiable information. The sole purpose of these sorts of conversations is simply to get the real scoop from people closest to whatever it is you’re trying to learn about.
So, I have to admit, based on my more recent conversations with the family – dad, mom, adult son and daughter-in-law – that runs this operation, I had some questions going in. I wanted to find out if they plan to vote in the midterms. There’s a reason for this.
This is one of those establishments that in 2024 and since has been MAGA to the fullest. Every available space in the garage had some sort of Trump sticker, sign, or message on it. The last time I got my oil changed in the late spring, I made an innocent observation to “Mama Bear” about her obvious support of Trump through all of those stickers and signs.
Her response was less than enthusiastic, and she changed the subject quickly. This time, as I rolled into the garage and sat in the vehicle for the oil change, I noticed something missing and mentioned it to “Junior,” who was doing the work. “Where are all your Trump stickers and signs?” I asked.
Every mention of Trump and MAGA was taken down. There was not one indication in this garage that this family cared about anything but Pennzoil and their grandson.
“I don’t know what happened,” he said. “Is there someone else in the White House wearing a Trump mask? That’s not what I voted for.”
I have to say, while this didn’t surprise me, it did bother me, because most of what Trump’s doing is exactly what I voted for. The difference between the auto mechanic and me, however, is that I actively take stock of all of Trump’s accomplishments on a regular basis, and I realize that you can’t blame Trump for not getting the hard things done overnight.
We talked for about 30 minutes. The shop was slow today. There was a pattern in his comments, and then the one takeaway for me came in something the mechanic said as I was about to leave, which summed up the attitude among a lot of everyday Trump voters I’m talking to these days. He said, “After this, I put my trust in no man.”
Translation: “I’m disgusted with the whole process and probably won’t even vote this time around.”
His issues are those tried-and-true ones that have decided elections for practically the entire history of the United States. To use the term James Carville coined, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
But it’s not just the economy. Sometimes success can be bad for turnout. Because the Trump administration sealed the border so early on in his second term, the illegal immigration issue is not a lever that will get conservatives to the polls this November. The problem’s been solved for at least as long as Trump is in office.
It’s a fact that if you want your base to turn out, two things need to happen: first, they have to be really, really mad about something; and second, they have to believe that you’ll do something about it. My mechanic and so many others I talk to who are like him are starting to get really mad about something, and the winds aren’t blowing the Republicans’ way.
People won’t go to the polls because they are grateful, especially in the midterms. They will go because they want change.
Case in point – prescription drug prices. The spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), Mike Marinella, recently said something that is good news for all of us, but it smacks of Pollyanna when it comes to his assumptions about the voters.
“Democrats spent years promising to lower drug prices and never got it done. Republicans did it in less than two years,” he said. “Prescription drug prices just posted their biggest drop in 60 years, and voters will know exactly who delivered and who stood in the way.”
Really, Mike? Do you really believe that, or are you just saying it because it’s trite and expected from a guy in your position?
I have to think that Marinella and others on the Republican side have to know that this is not an accomplishment that will get conservative voters to the polls. At the same time, anyone who works in communications, politics, or the news media instinctively understands that voters will not know “exactly who delivered and who stood in the way.”
There’s so much noise in every news cycle, and the cycles shift dramatically from week to week, that there’s a good chance most voters won’t even remember the prescription drug price battle come November, and they certainly won’t vote out of gratitude. This is human nature.
We have to quit telling ourselves this. It’s how we set ourselves up for a letdown on Election Day and a whole lot of finger-pointing the next day.
My mechanic said it better than Marinella. He said his son can’t afford to buy a house right now, and even though that’s not Trump’s fault, he's blaming Trump. To be sure, it's not for us to argue with mechanics over economic details. It's our job and the Republicans' job to get them to the polls to vote for Republicans.
This mechanic and millions of others hate the high price of gas, and they know, thanks to the Democrats, the leftist media, and even conservative media, that the Trump administration’s tariffs and the Iran war are behind much of this.
That’s why Zohran Mamdani won in New York City on a platform of “affordability.”
Republicans are not going to win in November by trying to convince voters that life is more affordable because the right party is in power. On everyday items, life is not more affordable, and a whole lot of it goes back to those tariffs and gas prices.
Don’t get me wrong. I support Trump’s strategy of playing hardball on both the tariff issue and the Iranians’ nuclear ambitions. If Trump weren’t willing to take a hard line like he’s doing, the world would not be in a fundamentally good place, which we are.
But good governing and forceful foreign relations aren't always the best fit for winning elections at home.
Knowing all of this, it seems to me that the best strategy is the one the Republicans haven’t deployed, at least not yet. They need to play offense. They can’t run on Trump’s record, as good as it is in most places.
Republicans have to attack the Democrats and make people angry. They can do this simply by making it abundantly clear who the Democrats are and what they represent in everyday living terms.
If the Democrats regain power, they will drive up taxes, make the current inflationary environment worse, undo all of the gains we’ve seen on illegal immigration, and bring back the pronoun police, the COVID police, the climate change police, and the free speech police.
Many of my colleagues have documented all of the rather destructive ideas the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) want to implement, but even there, the issue has yet to be framed in terms that your mechanic, your barber, and your local fry cook at the diner can best relate to.
Do you want an open border again? Do you want higher taxes? Do you want pro-lifers to go to jail for actual peaceful protests? Do you want to be forced to call men women and women men out of fear that you could be fired from your job? Do you want them to try to take away your gas stove once again, and your gas-powered vehicles, further driving up the price of cars?
In other words, in addition to all of the insane ideas the DSA has for America, at the very least, if the Democrats win in November, people have no idea how hard life will get. It’s the Republicans’ job to convince voters of this, using everyday examples that make Trump’s tariffs and confrontation with Iran seem more like what they are, a means to an end, and a better future for America. But to get there, Republicans in the states are going to have to demonize Democrats like they’ve never done before.
That’s what it will take to get my mechanic, a few other people I’ve been talking to, and millions like them back to the polls. Given the way elections have been decided this year by such narrow margins, Republicans cannot afford to give their base an excuse to stay home.
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