The Biden years left a mark on the Democratic Party that may not wash out for a generation. Joe Biden's immigration policies were so bad that they handed Republicans a huge advantage on the issue on a silver platter. In fact, the damage runs deeper than one bad election cycle. And I can’t help but wonder if Democrats ever fully recover from the disaster that Biden unleashed at the border.
CNN's chief data analyst, Harry Enten, broke it down, and the numbers are brutal for Democrats. During Donald Trump's first term, Democrats actually held an edge on immigration, leading by seven points in voter trust heading into the midterm cycle.
Fast forward to now, and it’s a much different story, with Republicans leading by eight points, a whooping 15-point swing. Independents have moved even harder, with Republicans holding a 16-point advantage in that group.
"Democrats have a problem on immigration," Enten said, pointing out the obvious.
Make no mistake about it, Republicans own this issue right now, and they know it. The more immigration stays in the headlines, the better the GOP performs relative to other issues. With the 2026 midterms on the horizon, that's a significant strategic advantage.
But here's what makes the data even more damaging for the left: it's not just that Republicans are winning the argument. It's that voters are telling Democrats exactly what they need to do, and Democrats appear to be ignoring them. Fifty-nine percent of all voters want Democrats to move to the center on immigration. Not to the left, but to the center.
Oh, and that's not some narrow ideological faction driving that number.
"There is wide agreement across socioeconomic classes and racial and ethnicity classes," Enten said. "51 percent of black voters. 54 percent of Latino voters. 59 percent of white college voters. And 67 percent of white non-college voters all agree they want Democrats to move to the center on immigration."
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So, the coalition that Democrats depend on to win national elections is telling the party it has gone too far left on immigration, and the response from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is to vote against $70 billion in immigration enforcement funding? Real smart.
Now, here’s the problem: Only 18% of voters want Democrats to shift further left on immigration. That doesn’t seem like a lot, but that is the party base, and they are the ones that Democrats in Washington are listening to. They are the ones driving policy decisions that repel the overwhelming majority of the electorate, including the very minority voters Democrats claim to champion.
And then there's the Trump approval angle. Oh yeah, Democrats won’t like this at all.
His approval rating on immigration sits at 42%, the highest of any second-term president in the 21st century at this point in their tenure. Barack Obama's approval rating on immigration during his second term was 36%. George W. Bush's was 30%. As for Trump? He has the highest rating, at 42%.
Enten noted that Trump has achieved this after implementing "the most consequential policies when it comes to immigration of any president this century."
Trump's been the most consequential this century on immigration policy. The result?
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) June 9, 2026
1. The GOP's more trusted than Dems on immigration by 8 pts (& up 16 with indies).
2. 59% of voters (& a majority White, Latino & Black voters) want Dems to move to the center on immigration. pic.twitter.com/NuypNmWhbe
The left spent years arguing that aggressive immigration enforcement was cruel, unpopular, and politically toxic. Clearly, the public disagrees.
Voters have watched the results of both approaches, and they're siding with enforcement. The border crisis that defined the Biden years has likely done lasting damage to the Democratic brand on this issue, and the party's continued resistance to course-correcting is making things worse.
Democrats are heading into a midterm environment where the issue they're losing is the one their opponent most wants to talk about. They've been told by their own voters, across racial and economic lines, that they need to move toward the middle. Instead, they're digging in. That’s not a winning strategy.
