Trump’s Best Iran Deal Might Be No Deal at All

AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson

Trivia question: What are the three top-selling erectile dysfunction (E.D.) medications in America?

According to the ol’ Google machine, it’s Viagra ($1.39 billion in 2025 sales), Cialis ($1.2 billion), and Levitra ($0.65 billion).

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But I think Google is wrong: By far, the top-selling E.D. medication in America is… Ozempic ($18.6 billion).

Don’t shoot the messenger, but couldn’t Ozempic — for some couples, at least — be considered an E.D. medication? (It’s just the only E.D. medication that the “other person” has to take.)

I call it the Obi-Wan Kenobi PR clause: “From a certain point of view,” it could be this, or it could be that. Acceptance — or rejection — of a premise depends on our expectations. To quote the bearded Jedi, “Luke, you’re going to find that many of the truths we cling to depend greatly on our own point of view.” 

This means that if we want an audience to reach a different conclusion, change their expectations.

This brings us to the increasingly unpopular Iran War, Donald Trump’s never-ending peace talks, and day 59 of a “ceasefire” that Hezbollah and Iran are no longer following. Meanwhile, President Trump hasn’t exactly been understated with his own expectations:

 

The Iran War began in February; it’s now June 4. Iran still hasn’t surrendered, the Strait of Hormuz still isn’t open, the mullahs are still in control, and Iran is still launching missiles and drones all over the Middle East.

For months now, President Trump has been telling us that Iran is desperate to make peace — and a blockbuster deal is imminent:

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President Trump takes pride in his dealmaking prowess. He’s the author, after all, of The Art of the Deal — and his own state department has heralded him as “the best dealmaker in the world.” He’d love to sign a historic deal that brings lasting peace to the Middle East.

But what if there’s no deal to be made because the Iranians have zero interest in abandoning their nuclear goals, support for terrorist proxies, ballistic missiles, or control of the Strait of Hormuz?

Increasingly, more observers are reaching this conclusion. From The Hill (June 4), “Iran Refuses to Play by Trump’s Rules, to His Great Frustration”:

President Trump’s forever ceasefire with Iran is now 59 days running. So is his dance with Iranian negotiators. Both are bad optics for the White House.

A stubbornly determined Trump insists that “Iran really wants to make a deal” with the U.S. At least that is what they tell his negotiating team of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner behind closed doors.

Iran’s actions — especially those of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, under the leadership of Ahmad Vahidi — suggest otherwise. And this led Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to submit his resignation to the Office of the Supreme Leader last weekend. 

Pezeshkian said he has been “effectively excluded from major and vital decision-making processes in the country, and that the vacuum created by this situation [had] enabled hardline factions within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to take control of affairs, and that under circumstances, he [was] unable to run the government.”

Pezeshkian gets it — so why can’t the White House? Armed hard-liners are now running the country. A deal that compromises their power in the Middle East is not in the cards. [emphasis added]

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It could very well be that Iran’s new strategy is endless negotiations — i.e., stringing U.S. diplomats along, promising great things behind closed doors, agreeing to 99% of demands, but perpetually keeping the final 1% from ever reaching a conclusion. It’s a strategy that has considerable upside for the mullahs:

  1. With a ceasefire already in place (at least in name), the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign has stopped. No more mullahs have been killed. As long as the ceasefire continues, Iran has a free hand to rebuild its military — which it seems to be doing.
  2. By linking a peace deal to Hezbollah’s survival, Iran has gotten President Trump to order Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu to stop attacking its terrorist proxies in Lebanon. But once a peace deal is signed, Iran would lose that leverage.
  3. The economic turmoil and higher oil prices will likely injure Republicans in the 2026 midterms, which would weaken Trump’s hand and empower the Democrats, Iran’s most dependable U.S. allies.
  4. Refusing to cede an inch to the Americans shows the Iranian citizens how strong, tough, and powerful the mullahs are. (Plus, it demoralizes dissent and dissuades rebellion.) The longer they drag negotiations out, the stronger they look — and by comparison, the weaker America looks.
  5. Eventually, the Americans will have to leave. (All the mullahs must do is survive.) Exhausting American patience — without any bombs dropping on their head — is the best of both worlds.
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It’s not a perfect strategy because the U.S. blockade is economically damaging. Ideally, Iran would still be sending 90.8% of its oil to China. But you could make a compelling argument that this is Iran’s best available option.

If so, where does that leave President Trump?

It means he must change expectations ASAP. His first step is to stop saying that an agreement is “largely negotiated” or “close.” Because it’s not — and it’s costing Trump his credibility.

But it’s not costing the mullahs a damn thing. Trump is paying the political price, not them.

Clearly, the president’s language isn’t pressuring Iran — but it’s setting high domestic expectations. That’s dangerous because Trump can’t deliver a peace deal if Iran won’t sign the deal. He’s stuck because it takes two to tango.

This means that Iran controls Trump’s political future.

Okay, okay. This all sounds pessimistic. But don’t reach for the razor blades just yet: President Trump still has options.

Two options, actually. 

The first was recommended at the end of The Hill’s op-ed:

After Tuesday evening’s attacks, it should be clear that an emboldened Iran is not going to back down. The White House is going to have to follow through on its threats to resume Operation Epic Fury — only this time, it must finish the job and defeat the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s center of gravity

Unconditional surrender is now the only acceptable outcome for the White House to obtain the objectives the President laid out on March 2, which will lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

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Well, yeah: An unconditional surrender would 100% solve lots of problems! Trouble is, it’ll take a lot more bombs, bullets, blood, and bad press to achieve.

What if President Trump doesn’t have the appetite to relaunch the Iran War? What if he’s concluded that the political price is too high — and the juice isn’t worth the squeeze?

If so, President Trump needs to sell the American people on the upside of NO Iran deal.

Explain to the American people what we’ve already gained: Iran’s Supreme Leader is supremely dead. Iran’s navy and air force have been blown to bits. Its nuclear program is under a mountain of rubble; its economy is on life support.

The bully of the Middle East is now the loser of the Middle East; its capacity for mischief was minimized. Americans are safer than ever before — and with U.S. oil companies now supplying the world, the economic benefits will be in the trillions. (Trump should cite the CNBC headline: “U.S. Crude Oil Exports Surge to Record as Tankers Flock to Gulf Coast During Iran War.”)

Instead of costing us money, this war will be a financial windfall — and the longer the Strait is closed, the more money we’ll make!

Yes, there’s been an uptick in oil prices. But that’s temporary. In the long run, oil prices will be lower — and our 401(k)s higher. 

This is Making America Great Again!

As for Iran, if it wants to rejoin the family of nations, it can sign the deal that America gave it. Otherwise, it can roll the paper sideways and stick it up its [CENSORED].

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Because there will be no further U.S. concessions. 

If Iran doesn’t sign, the blockade will continue, and we’ll do one of two things: Either restart the war at a time of our choosing — or we’ll introduce the phrase “lawnmower diplomacy” into the public vernacular.

Lawmower diplomacy is very simple: If Iran is going to be a bad actor, we’ll treat it like a weed — and every now and then, we’ll come on over and mow it down.

This way, Iran gains nothing by playing beat-the-clock. It no longer controls President Trump’s political future. (Instead, the U.S. blockade controls their future!) We can restart the war if we want, when we want — or we can play hit-and-run. 

Suddenly, we have more options at our disposal.

Best of all, it gives Trump an opportunity to reset American expectations: It no longer matters if Iran signs, because we’ve already won. It won’t be developing nukes, its leader is dead, it's economically broken, and we’ve established the precedent of mowing Iran down whenever we feel like it.

No more waiting games. No more stalling.

Your enemy’s unconditional surrender is always the best outcome. But if that’s no longer politically viable, subverting expectations is the next best thing. 

Swallow the pill and move on.

(And if conditions last more than four hours, seek immediate medical help.)

One Last Thing: 2026 is a critical year for America First. It began with Mayor Mamdani declaring war on “rugged individualism” and will reach a crescendo with the midterm elections. Nothing less than the fate of the America First movement teeters in the balance.

Never before have the political battle lines been so clearly defined. Win or lose, 2026 will transform our country.

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