Two parties, two theories — and a literal line in the sand. But now the debate is over: the evidence is overwhelming.
Conservatives were right — and President Donald Trump’s policies are on pace to save 50,000 American lives!
Border security was one of the most bitterly disputed political debates of the last half-century. Conservatives argued that open borders increased crime, drug addiction, and drug deaths. Liberals claimed the exact opposite: Illegal immigrants were statistically less likely to commit crimes, drugs were a demand-side problem, and besides, the U.S. border was just too gosh-durn big to regulate anyway.
So our borders were wide open and our minds were closed. Each side insisted they were 100% right; nobody ceded an inch.
Golly gee! If only there were a way to test which theory was true…
Unfortunately, many political theories defy means testing. Take, for instance, abortion: You may be pro-life because you believe the unborn has a soul, but there’s no scientific way to prove it. We can scientifically demonstrate when heart and brain activity begin (approximately three weeks after conception), but the soul’s trajectory is a question of faith and morality, not lab coats and clinical studies.
(Fun fact: A scientific experiment in 1907 actually tried to quantify the size of the soul by measuring the weight of people before and after death. It’s why some people believe the soul weighs 21.3 grams.)
But the “open border” question?
Hell yeah, we could conduct an experiment on that!
In fact, we just did.
President Joe Biden left our borders wide open for four long years. Between 10 and 20 million illegals entered our country. (Determining the exact number of people who successfully evaded detection is always uncertain.) By some metrics, America’s illegal immigrant population doubled under Biden, reaching the highest figures in U.S. history.
That was step one.
Next, President Trump closed our border within days of reassuming office. Not figuratively — literally. We’ve now gone 15 straight months of zero releases at the border. Record numbers of illegals returned home.
Which means, we now have our “before” and “after.” We have the crime and drug stats from the Biden years — and we can compare it to the Trump years.
If the liberals were right, the U.S. crime rate would rise — since illegals are proportionately less likely than U.S. citizens to break the law. But drug deaths would stay on a perfectly even keel, because drugs are a demand-side problem.
(The left already lost its third argument — that the border was simply too gosh-durn big to regulate. Turns out, all we ever needed was a president willing to do it.)
And if conservatives were right, the U.S. crime rate would dramatically plummet, fewer people would be murdered, and overdose deaths would nosedive.
Well, well, well. We now have the results — and I’m sure the party that’s constantly imploring us to “follow the science” will accept the results without protest or pushback. [Snicker]
From the FBI: FBI Releases 2025 Reported Crimes in the Nation Statistics
Following the May announcement that violent crime decreased 9.3% from 2024 to 2025, the FBI released detailed data tables on more than 13 million criminal offenses reported to the FBI by participating law enforcement agencies for 2025. The data support the previously released violent crime trends:
- Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter offenses decreased an estimated 18.1%.
- Rape offenses decreased an estimated 7.6%.
- Aggravated assault figures decreased an estimated 7.2%.
- Robbery offenses decreased an estimated 18.5%.
The 2025 murder rate of 4.1 per 100,000 inhabitants is tied with 1955 and 1956 for the lowest murder rate.
In 2024, the FBI reported 16,935 murders. Which means, an 18.1% reduction saved 3,065 lives in 2025 alone.
And if that rate stayed constant through today (Aug. 22, 2026), that’s another 1,601 people saved — bringing our total to 4,666 lives!
If you were impressed by Trump’s crime stats, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. What’s happened to drug deaths is simply extraordinary.
From the White House: President Trump’s Relentless Strategy Is Dismantling Fentanyl Networks and Saving Lives
Under President Trump, the fentanyl death toll has plunged:
- Synthetic opioid (fentanyl) deaths dropped 22% in a single year — from 48,913 in 2024 to 38,084 in 2025.
- Total drug overdose deaths fell 14% — from 81,313 in 2024 to 69,973 in 2025.
- America recorded its lowest overall death rate ever in 2025, driven in large part by these sharp declines in drug fatalities.
That’s over 11,300 lives saved in a single year. If this rate stays constant, that’s another 4,027 lives saved through today (Aug. 22), bringing our total to over 15,000. (And if the rate increases, of course, the results will be even better.)
Coupled with the crime stats, that’s nearly 20,000 lives saved in LESS than two years!
Consider what this means: At this pace, by the end of Donald Trump’s second term, he’ll have saved the lives of approximately 50,000 Americans.
Is it true that murder, crime, and addiction have many, many contributing factors? Absolutely. The factors range from economic to spiritual. No two tales of woe are the same; every tragedy is different.
Did Trump’s other policies — such as deploying the national guard in cities struggling with crime — also play a role? Absolutely. Trump’s crackdown on immigration crime didn’t end at the border; his strategy included the heartland.
Reducing crime and drug deaths was an all-hands-on-deck problem. But that doesn’t negate the nexus of illegal immigration, open borders, and American deaths!
If anything, it describes the extent of it.
And at this point, the statistical correlation between stopping border crossings and illegal immigration — and the U.S. murder/overdose rates falling off a flippin’ cliff — is undeniable.
The Democrats want to pretend it’s all a weird, wacky coincidence. But they can’t have it both ways: Either ICE’s crackdown was so punitive and disruptive, it was wrecking entire communities, destroying the fabric of our country, and necessitating “No King” rallies, or it wasn’t impactful at all.
Yet they’re certainly trying:
Washington Post: Violent Crime Is Dropping Dramatically. The Explanation Isn’t So Simple.
New York Times: What’s Behind the Staggering Drop in the Murder Rate? No One Knows for Sure.
USA Today: Trump Claims Credit for Murder Drop. It’s Not That Simple.
NPR: National Guard Has Done Little to Reduce Violent Crime in D.C., a New Study Finds
New York Times: I Am a Drug Historian. Trump Is Wrong About Fentanyl in Almost Every Way.
Salon: Donald Trump Doesn’t Understand the Drug War He’s Fighting
New York Magazine: The Mysterious Plunge in America’s Murder Rate
The Intercept: Trump’s Killing Spree Isn’t Stopping the Flow of Drugs Into the U.S.
New York Times: President Takes Credit for Steep Crime Rate Declines With False Claims
MS NOW: What Trump Doesn’t (But Should) Understand About Crime in Washington, D.C.
The Guardian: Trump’s Cuts to Intervention Programs Could Increase Violent Crime, Experts Say
New York Times: This [Trump’s] Approach to Addiction Will Cost Lives
NPR: Will U.S. Military Strikes Slow Drug Overdose Deaths? Experts Say No
Time Magazine: Trump’s Venezuela Takeover Won’t Stop Overdoses in the U.S.
New York Times: America Was Finally Turning a Corner on Opioids. Until Now.
It’s the damnedest thing: Nobody knows why U.S. death rates are dropping like a rock. Why, it’s a total head-scratcher!
(It’s right up there with the Loch Ness Monster, Bigfoot, and UFOs. Who really knows?)
Yet Donald Trump’s policies clearly didn’t help, and anyone who says otherwise is a dirty, filthy liar. (If anything, he made everything worse.) And that, boys and girls, is “All the news that’s fit to print.”
Goodnight and good luck!
Sorry, libs. If you believe in cause and effect, you can’t only trust it when it’s politically convenient.
We just ran the experiment. These are the results, whether you like it or not!
But instead of complaining, perhaps you ought to be applauding: Nearly 20,000 American lives have already been saved since the start of Trump’s second term. At this rate, it’ll be well over 25,000 lives saved by the end of his second year.
By 2028, that’s approximately 50,000 American lives!
The border debate is over. Conservatives won.
And so did America.
One Last Thing: 2026 will reach a crescendo with the midterm elections. Nothing less than the future of our country teeters in the balance.
Never before have the political battle lines been so clearly defined. Blue wave or red wall, one way or another the 2026 midterms will transform our country.
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