Ever since former OpenAI researcher Jacob Coxon posted his "we're all doomed" message in September, positing that AI would "destroy humanity" in the next decade, there has been a healthy debate about how to control AI so that the world can safely take advantage of its promised revolution.
The leaders of Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, Meta, and other players in the AI industry aren't trying to sugarcoat anything. They agree there are risks, though thoughts on how serious they are vary from person to person.
One thing they all agree on is that a major incident involving rogue AI is inevitable. "These officials anticipate a large-scale event, most likely a cyberattack, that shuts down access to financial services, internet connectivity, or even power and water," reports Axios. Several companies are cooperating in gaming out scenarios where a revolt by the public and Congress after such an incident could put enormous pressure on the government to shut them down.
It not only wouldn't do any good (open-weight AI models are almost as powerful and are readily available), but the AI infrastructure build-out makes bringing AI development to a screeching halt a hazard to an already fragile world economy. More than a trillion dollars has been invested in this buildout, making it impractical to do anything but "pause" AI development.
Even that option carries risks. This is a race for AI dominance with China, and in this contest, there's no participation trophy.
The companies on the frontier of this technology aren't mindless, profit-hungry capitalists looking to rule the world. There has been unprecedented cooperation among bitter business rivals to develop guidelines for introducing these powerful new AI models. The companies are also trying to work with Congress to make sure that any legislation coming down the road won't go too far in curtailing AI progress.
The cooperation in gaming out catastrophic scenarios has been eye-opening.
Company executives know regulation has no chance of passing right now, but still want to shape the legislation and policies U.S. leaders will turn to after a first catastrophic event.
What we're watching: Many AI industry insiders told Axios they believe a major event will occur in the next six to 12 months.
Even with Democrats in control of the House and Senate, the companies see fractured politics as the norm, including within the Democratic Party.
Some of the most heavy-handed Democratic proposals include banning superintelligence or pausing advanced AI development.
Others have bipartisan support and even some industry buy-in, including a required kill switch on advanced AI. But experts have questioned the viability of trying to turn off all AI systems.
The bottom line: In a real crisis, Washington can set partisan differences aside. One Democratic aide pointed to cooperation during COVID and the 2008 financial crisis.
COVID was a lifetime ago, and the financial crisis may as well have occurred in the 19th century. They are irrelevant to the blood sport that is American politics today.
"The first example of significant real-world harm caused by unsafe AI would turn an already wary public further against the technology and its leaders, including Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, as well as President Trump for his reluctance to regulate it," notes Axios.
The resulting hysteria, generated and fed by those who would profit politically from riding a wave of revolution over AI's dangers, hyping any example of AI going rogue, could set back AI development for a decade. Scaring the public is politically and financially profitable. It always has been.
In this case, while caution is called for and pauses in introducing some new models may be necessary, unleashing American ingenuity will change the nation and the world.
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