The Morning Briefing: Polls Are Getting Worse for Trump, Which Probably Means He Wins in a Landslide

AP Photo/Alex Brandon
Poll Trolling

We’re going to engage in a little #TGIF speculation about the state of the nation and our upcoming presidential election. This is a topic I’ve tiptoed around lately because I’ve not been exactly overflowing with optimism.


I gotta say, thanks to the rioting CHAZ/CHOP types on the Left, I’m perking up a bit these days.

In a Briefing last month, I wondered whether anyone believed the polls even though I knew the question was largely rhetorical for devoted readers here. Well, maybe not for our regular trolls, but they believed the polls in 2016 too and that’s a big part of what made election night so delicious. That’s why we keep the trolls around, for moments like that. And for the clicks.

It’s been a little over three weeks since that post and the polls are getting worse for President Trump. A CNN poll at the beginning of the month had Trump behind Biden by 14 and a new Fox News poll has him down by 12. My instinctive response to those numbers is: on what planet can the drooling moron Biden be leading a presidential race by that much? That’s what makes me doubt the polls even more so than the fact that they were so spectacularly wrong in 2016.

 (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

I was recording a VIP podcast on Thursday with my comedian friend Kevin Downey Jr, who is a huge Trump fan. He doesn’t think the polls are off, he thinks they’re flat-out lying. Given the overwhelming toxicity of Trump Derangement Syndrome, I wouldn’t be surprised if that were the case. There never was an adequate explanation for why they were all so wrong in the last election so we’re left with only two conclusions: the pollsters are all incompetent or they were being deliberately duplicitous. Don’t say it’s a combination of both, because incompetent people couldn’t orchestrate that kind of grand-scale duplicity.

Long after I gave up trying to predict what would happen in 2016, I remained convinced of one thing: Trump support in flyover country was being severely underrepresented in the polls. As polling hasn’t undergone any overhaul since then, there is no reason to believe that isn’t the case again this year. For the most part, coastal voters are a fixed part of the electorate. The votes that will win this election for either candidate are to be found more inland. For Republicans, it usually comes down to about 20 drunks in Ohio. This year, I think those drunks have moved to Michigan.


I can’t for the life of me fathom how the social unrest of the past few weeks helps Biden and the Democrats in any way. Sure, it energizes the indoctrinated leftist youth, but there is no way older Democrats who have jobs, kids, and mortgages are looking at Democratic officials celebrating CHAZ/CHOP and other anarchist nonsense and feeling like they want to go all-in for November. I don’t necessarily think the past few weeks have flipped people like that to Trump, but I do believe it will dampen their enthusiasm for voting at all. Those kinds of things are never reflected in the polls.

 (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

Another thing that could be skewing the polls that has nothing to do with the pollsters is the fact that Trump voters may be uncomfortable being forthcoming. That was widely thought to be part of the problem in 2016.

What I am getting at here is that none of this fits. Biden is a drooling moron who can’t get through a 90-second script without forgetting where he is. The worst of what has gone on throughout the pandemic shutdowns and the protests and riots has been in very blue states and cities. It’s difficult to believe that a significant portion of the electorate is opting for that chaos.

I truly believe that Trump has the voter enthusiasm edge by a large margin and we’re about to see that now that he is doing rallies again. That’s not always easy to gauge in a poll but the turnout for the GOP primaries for an uncontested incumbent was pretty impressive this year. The press won’t talk about it, but I’m sure that’s got some Democratic officials sweating.

The impact of the polls is debatable. The media loves to hype them but it’s likely that only political junkies are paying a lot of attention to them.


We all know that Trump was getting trounced in the polls at this point in the 2016 cycle. In fact, he was getting trounced in the polls right up until Election Day. He didn’t have all of liberal America losing their damn minds then and he still had a comfortable electoral victory.

If the “peaceful protests” and defund police lunacy last through the summer he may just win in a popular landslide.

TBH, I’m Half Irish and the Lucky Charms Leprechaun Kinda Irritates Me

Comments of the Week

Re: the shutdowns and ruining small businesses:

PJM Linktank

NYPD Planning ‘Strike’ on July 4 to Give People Their ‘Independence From Police’

Intelligence Analyst Is Going to Prison for Leaking Classified Intel to NBC. Is Comey Watching?

Atlanta Police Will Get a $500 Bonus Because That Will Fix Everything

Liberals React to Rep. Matt Gaetz’s Announcement About Adopted Son Nestor With Disgusting Homophobic Tweets

Justice Thomas EVISCERATES ‘Timid’ DACA Decision as Destructive to the Rule of Law

That’s the ticket. Should Trump Demand More Debates With Biden This Fall?

Portland’s Antifa Sets Up ‘Autonomous Zone’ in the Mayor’s Neighborhood. It Doesn’t Last Long

CHOP Cheers Theft… er… ‘Unplanned Donation’ as Cuomo Says Some People ‘Shouldn’t Have’ Police

Pennsylvania Auto Show to Defy Lockdown Orders

10 Times Barack Obama Acknowledged That DACA Was Unconstitutional


Shut it down. What Price Peace? UN Rights Chief Calls for Slavery Reparations

VodkaPundit: Duluth Language Police Chop the Word ‘Chief’ from Local Vocabulary in Savage Move

They kept voting for Democrats…‘We Are Just Sitting Ducks’: Seattle Residents Terrified After CHOP Cuts Them Off from Basic Protection

BREAKING: Supreme Court Refuses to End DACA in Ruling Authored by Chief Justice John Roberts

Pro-Black Lives Matter Mayor Has Epiphany After Her Home Was Vandalized by the Movement She Supported

Should Juneteenth Be a National Holiday?

The Silent Majority Can Be Silent No More

Atlanta District Attorney Paul Howard Politicizes Policing With Disastrous Results

Liberal Opinions from Conservative Supreme Court Justices: What Went Wrong?

The Silent Majority Can Be Silent No More

John Bolton’s Shameful Tantrum

Trump Campaign Ad Uses Antifa Symbol, But the Symbol Has a Disgusting Backstory…

Ted Cruz Completely DESTROYS John Roberts on Senate Floor Over DACA Decision

Terry Crews: White People Can Be Republican, But ‘If You’re Black, You Have to Be One Thing’

Black Man Puts Up Exercise Ropes in Oakland. Mayor Condemns ‘Nooses’ as ‘Hate Crimes’

SEC Threatens to Boycott Mississippi if It Doesn’t Change the State Flag

Wait. ‘Gator Bait’ Is Racist Now?!

‘The Good Place’ Producer Megan Amram Grovels for Forgiveness Over Bad Tweets

Do Americans Need ‘Warning Labels’ on Racist Films of the Past?


Boy Scouts Launches Black Lives Matter Overhaul, Complete With New Eagle-Required Badge

A Brief History of Slavery

VIP Gold

Dissecting Never Trump Dementia


No, There Isn’t an Epidemic of Racist Shootings by Police

From the Mothership and Beyond

AMC Entertainment to reopen 450 U.S. theaters on July 15

He Says He Was Harassed By Armed Business Owners. Now He Wants The Law To Change.

Truckers Push For National Reciprocity Amid Riots, Pandemic

No, Recent Spike In Gun Sales Don’t Underscore Anything

Utah Pharmacist Foils Robbery Amidst Rise In Pharmacy Break-Ins

Shooting Charges Dropped In Albuquerque Protest Fight

Pelosi Orders 4 Portraits of Former Democratic Speakers Removed From U.S. Capitol

Colossal Screw-up: Did You Catch What an NBC News Reporter Tweeted in Their Hit Job Against The Federalist?

Well, That’s An Eye-Opening Find in the Toxicology Report About the AZ Couple That Ingested Fish Tank Cleaner

But cops are bad or something…WATCH: California Deputy Saves Baby’s Life During Black Lives Matter Protest

Watch CNN’s Chris Cuomo Get Totally Owned on Use of Force by Former Police Officer

The whole family is useless. Cuomo Signs Another Unpopular Executive Order

McConnell Ally Judge Justin Walker Confirmed to DC Circuit

Kira Davis: When the Trump Era Is Over America Will Be Ready for President Tim Scott 

Cancel the #Resistance Coronation, Almost Everyone Still Hates John Bolton

Marine Veteran at WH Event Shares Heartbreaking Suicide Attempt after Serving Our Nation

Herschel Walker Offers to Fly Everyone Who Doesn’t Want Police to Places Where There Aren’t Any

Police Bust Alleged Rioting Arsonists Because They Were Incredibly Stupid

Watch: Congressman Hits House Democrats Where It Hurts on Sen Tim Scott, Police Reform

REMINDER: Atlanta DA Seeking Life Sentence or Execution in Brooks Shooting Under Serious Investigation For Corruption and Sexual Harassment


Army Recommends Resistance Hero LTC Vindman For Promotion But Will President Trump Go Along

Um…Chick-fil-A CEO Tells White Americans to Shine Black People’s Shoes as a Show of Humility (VIDEO)

Fauci Fears Football May Succumb to Second Wave of Coronavirus

Stacey Abrams Cashes In: Amazon Buys Her Voting Rights Documentary

Minneapolis Firefighters: Our Leadership Checked Out During The Riots Too

Trump: Reelect Me Because We Need Some New Supreme Court Justices To Protect Conservative Values

Matt Taibbi: False Accusations Of Racism Are Destroying The Media

Great Moment For American Media: WaPo Doxxes Woman No One’s Heard Of, Gets Her Fired For … 2018 Halloween Costume

Satellite Images Suggest Border Clash In The Himalayas Was Prompted By Chinese Activity

Amy Klobuchar doesn’t want to be considered as Biden running mate, calls for ‘woman of color’ to be on the ticket instead

Mega LOL. Scott Adams asks Brian Stelter which group sounded sane talking about John Bolton’s book: CNN or Fox News?

‘I’m sorry, what?’ Watch as Joe Biden explains why ‘you ought to marry into a family of 5 or more sisters’

‘What are YOU gonna do?!’ Tom Arnold threatens Aubrey Huff for refusing to wear a mask and it does NOT end well for him

‘Zero questions about…’: Janice Dean shreds GMA for ‘biggest softball interview ever’ with NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo

Small victory for sanity. Christopher Columbus name won’t be changed at Wisconsin Catholic high school 

Newsom’s secretive $1-billion mask deal with Chinese automaker sparks bipartisan concerns

Bee Me

The Kruiser Kabana

Maybe some of us will get to be in the same re-education camps.


Kruiser Twitter
Kruiser Facebook
PJ Media Senior Columnist and Associate Editor Stephen Kruiser is the author ofDon’t Let the Hippies ShowerandStraight Outta Feelings: Political Zen in the Age of Outrage,” both of which address serious subjects in a humorous way. Monday through Friday he edits PJ Media’s “Morning Briefing.” His columns appear twice a week.


Trending on PJ Media Videos

Join the conversation as a VIP Member