Time for Democrats to Panic in California?

It was barely two weeks ago when Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass declared the California gubernatorial race already over and an election unnecessary.

"That's why the governor's race is over," Bass said. "Our governor's name is Xavier Becerra. You don't need an election on November 3. A Republican cannot win in this state."

Then she took a shot at Republican candidate Steve Hilton, the British-born former Fox News host. "And yet, a Republican with a British accent?" she added.

California voters just said bollocks to that.

Becerra's lead dropped sharply after Wednesday's debate with Hilton, where the Democrat came across as mean-spirited, hostile to a legal immigrant, and dishonest about his own background.

David Wolfson poll | 10/1-10/2 LV California Governor 2026 🟦Xavier Becerra 45.7% 🟥Steve Hilton 40.1% (Steve Hilton internal) https://t.co/xxqKjEhub2
— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) October 5, 2026

The New York Post has more:

The California governor’s race has tightened dramatically, with Democrat Becerra holding a slim 5.6-point advantage over Republican Steve Hilton in a new poll conducted immediately after the candidates’ first debate.
The poll, commissioned by Hilton’s campaign and conducted by pollster David Wolfson on Oct. 1-2, surveyed 1,020 California voters and found Becerra with 45.7% support to Hilton’s 40.1%, while another 14.1% remain undecided.>
The numbers mark a striking shift from an earlier poll commissioned by Hilton that showed Becerra with a 52%-37% lead, according to a poll previously reported by the Post.>
That 15-point advantage has now been reduced to less than six points.

Yes, Hilton's campaign paid for this poll. It also paid for the September one, taken before the debate, that had Becerra up 52% to 37%, so it’s hard to argue that there hasn’t been a swing. Other polls had shown Becerra ahead by eighteen to twenty-five points.

That explains why Bass argued there shouldn’t be an election: fear. Democrats feel entitled to power, and Becerra isn’t exactly the Democrats' most exciting candidate. He became the frontrunner for the Democrat nomination after Eric Swalwell’s campaign crashed and burned, and he wasn’t exactly the ideal candidate.

He served as Health and Human Services (HHS) secretary under former President Joe Biden, and his record there wasn’t exactly something to brag about. Nearly half a million unaccompanied children passed through HHS on Becerra's watch.

479,000 unaccompanied children came through HHS on Xavier Becerra’s watch — he dismantled the vetting, told staff to run it “like a production line,” and kids were sent to a container lot and to MS-13, what Bobby Kennedy called the largest child trafficking operation in history. Protecting children is the first job of government, and this should disqualify him: ballots are going out, California — vote for CHANGE.
— Steve Hilton (@SteveHiltonx) October 4, 2026

Let’s be honest: Becerra is still likely to win in November. But Hilton's jump in the polls tells you that when Democrats fail to lead long enough, a strong candidate can be competitive. And there’s room for this election to tighten even more. Sure, it’s a long shot, and you won’t see the GOP investing any real money here, but if Hilton can be competitive in California, then that tells you that the midterms won’t be as bad as many think they will be for the GOP.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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