Democrats Have Gotten Some Bad News About the Midterms From a Democrat Pollster

Democrats received a sobering forecast from one of their own when veteran pollster Mark Penn told Fox News that he expects Republicans to hold the Senate in November.

Penn has earned the right to an opinion on this. He served as Bill Clinton's chief pollster and the strategist behind his 1996 reelection, and he later advised Hillary Clinton. He has spent decades figuring out how Democrats win, which makes his read on how they lose this year worth your attention.

His appearance on Hannity started with plenty of caution. Sean Hannity cited Newt Gingrich's view that this is the most unpredictable cycle of his lifetime, and Penn agreed.

"That is what I actually tell people because when you look at all these polls, they're all within the margin of error," Penn told Fox News. "So we know that the last election was two points, but we also know that turnout for the midterms, if you look at it, typically falls off about 20%."

Penn estimated that roughly 112 million people will vote this fall, compared to about 150 million in a presidential year. With close to 40 million voters staying home, the winner in a tight race is whichever side gets its people to show up.

"The polls here are neck and neck virtually everywhere," he said. "So I wouldn't say that you could pick a winner or a loser now. I think attitudes towards the economy in the next couple of weeks and turnout are going to be the two critical factors."

Both of those factors give Republicans something to work with. Hannity pointed out that President Donald Trump has roughly $850 million, and the Republican Senate and congressional committees have about $800 million more between them. Asked how much that war chest matters for getting out the vote, Penn answered like a man who has run these operations before.

"Get out the vote to me is one of the two critical factors," he said. "Turnout is far more important in the midterms."

He added that Democrats still hold a big edge in mail-in voting and that Republicans need to either match it or get their voters to the polls in person. That's a real hurdle, and nobody on the right should pretend otherwise. But money and organization can solve that problem, and the GOP has both.

Then Penn handed Republicans a free campaign message.

"Under Biden, inflation was 8%. Under Trump, it's 3%. You want it to keep going down or you want 8%?" he said. "I probably would blast that out with hundreds of millions of dollars if I could because most voters think that inflation is higher under Trump when it is in fact exactly the opposite."

Penn also sounded like a man who barely recognizes his party anymore. When Hannity suggested this isn't the Democrat Party he grew up loving, Penn didn't argue.

"It's a very different party with some very different candidates at this point," he said. "And sometimes it just takes a drubbing to get back common sense."

And those are the candidates he thinks will ultimately decide control of the upper chamber.

"I still think the Republicans hold the Senate because I do think the Democrats have incredibly weak candidates in Maine and Michigan," he said.

Nothing is guaranteed in a midterm election this close, and Republicans still have work to do. But they head into the final stretch with more than $1.6 billion to spend in an election year that turnout will decide.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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