Minnesota Can Go Red This Year. Here’s Why.

I’ve said before that Republicans head into the 2026 midterms in a stronger position than the national polls suggest, and Minnesota is a big reason why. Along with New Hampshire, the state has become an overlooked Senate pickup opportunity, which is remarkable, given that Minnesota hasn't backed a Republican for president since 1972.

The Senate race between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D-Minn.) and Republican Michele Tafoya is a near dead heat. Big Data Poll has Flanagan ahead by two points. InsiderAdvantage has her up by one. KSTP/SurveyUSA found the race tied. Flanagan’s lead in the RealClearPolitics average is a mere 1.6 points, well within the margin of error.

So why is a Democrat struggling in a state this blue?

Start with her record. Flanagan supports permanent gender surgeries for minors, has called for completely defunding ICE, and wants full citizenship for every illegal immigrant in Minnesota. Those positions sit well outside the mainstream, even there.

Then there's the benefits fraud linked to the Somali community. Separate polling shows fraud ranks as a top issue for Minnesota voters, which greatly benefits Tafoya. The poll, which SurveyUSA conducted, found that more voters (14%) ranked fraud an important issue than healthcare (12%).

The benefits fraud scandal already forced Gov. Tim Walz (D-Minn.) to abandon his reelection campaign. For some reason, Minnesota Democrats thought nominating his radical lieutenant governor was a great idea. Clearly, it wasn't. Flanagan can't separate herself from party leadership that looked the other way for years, largely out of fear of losing Somali support.

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On top of that, law and order is breaking down. A report from earlier this summer found that a dozen Somali gangs with hundreds of members, most of them teenagers, are wreaking havoc with shootings and murders carried out in the open. Ramsey County Sheriff Bob Fletcher, whose office patrols the area around Minneapolis and St. Paul, told the Washington Examiner that as many as three hundred Somali youth are involved in gang activity in the Twin Cities. His office tied those gangs to at least fourteen homicides over the past two years and more than one hundred shootings, including gunfights at high school graduations and the Minnesota State Fair.

The latest came Friday night, when shots rang out outside Eden Prairie High School's football stadium during the homecoming game against Minnetonka.

Police responded around 8:40 p.m., evacuated the stadium, and asked residents to stay away. Two people went to Hennepin County Medical Center with non-life-threatening injuries, and the Minnesota Star Tribune reported that neither attends either school. Eden Prairie police said on Facebook that they believe the shooting was targeted, and that they've made no arrests.

Law enforcement sources again confirm Somali gangs are responsible for tonight's shooting at the Eden Prairie game.

— Liz Collin (@lizcollin) October 3, 2026

Even Gov. Walz responded late Friday.

State officials are assisting local authorities to find those responsible after a shooting outside the Eden Prairie football game. No homecoming, in any community, should be disrupted by gun violence. Minnesotans are keeping students and families in our thoughts tonight.

— Governor Tim Walz (@GovTimWalz) October 3, 2026

Did you see what he did there? “Gun violence.” No mention of gangs at all.

Make no mistake about it, voters notice.

Minnesota Democrats turned a blind eye to Somali fraud and to Somali violence, and that can't help them in November. Eden Prairie is an affluent suburb of Minneapolis, and not the kind of place you’d expect gang violence to take place. If Minnesota Democrats aren’t doing enough to combat this, voters are going to punish them out of self-preservation.

The effect reaches past the Senate race, too. The most recent governor's race poll that the New York Times tracked shows Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) leading Republican Lisa Demuth by just two points.

Republicans have a real shot here.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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