National polls keep telling Republicans the same discouraging story heading into the 2026 midterms. Call me crazy, but I think the GOP is in a much stronger position than the polls are telling us.
It wouldn’t be the first time, right?
Last month, I flagged New Hampshire's Senate race as a real flip opportunity for the GOP in 2026, even though it is receiving only a small fraction of the attention being given to the competitive races in Texas, Georgia, and Michigan. None of that has changed. Based on most polls, Texas State Rep. James Talarico (D-50th District) is running closer than anyone expected against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, though I don’t think anyone actually believes he can win. I mean, it’s Texas, after all.
Georgia still appears set to reelect Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.). And in Michigan, the race has become real since primary voters selected Abdul El-Sayed as the Democratic nominee. All three races are now attracting a great deal of media coverage, whereas New Hampshire somehow still isn’t, even though a recent poll carried out by the University of New Hampshire and 7NEWS shows former Sen.John E. Sununu (R-N.H.) leading Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) 45% to 43% in a general-election matchup.
That's a race Republicans are supposed to lose, and yet, it’s clearly competitive.
And now there's a second race nobody had on their radar that's suddenly worth watching.
Minnesota's 2026 Senate race between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D-Minn.) and Republican Michele Tafoya is a near dead heat, and that should terrify Democrats in a state that hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1972, the longest active one-party streak in the country.
A new poll has Flanagan at 40% and Tafoya at 38%, a gap that is within the margin of error, with independent candidate Marisa Simonetti pulling 4%, other candidates at 3%, and 14% of voters still undecided. This wasn't commissioned by some outfit trying to manufacture a Republican wave, either. It was conducted for the League of American Workers, hardly a partisan right-leaning group looking to cook the numbers.
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While President Donald Trump's approval in Minnesota sits at 36%, with 58% disapproving, putting him 22 points underwater in the state, Gov. Tim Walz (D-Minn.) is underwater too, 42% approve to 46% disapprove. So, that says something.
Why is Flanagan in such a weak position in a reliably blue state? Well, despite her party identification, she supports permanent barbaric gender surgeries for minors, has called for completely defunding Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and has advocated full citizenship for every illegal immigrant in the state. These are not mainstream positions.
The same poll also found widespread disapproval of mass Muslim migration to Minnesota, echoing numbers already seen in Michigan. Flanagan's open-border record and her practice of wearing a hijab are exactly the kind of things that are giving Minnesota voters pause.
From where I sit, despite the national polling, the GOP is heading into 2026 in a far better position than most coverage admits. A 2-point lead in New Hampshire and a 2-point gap in a state Republicans haven't carried for president since 1972, in an election year that's supposed to be a bad one for the GOP, tells you that something else is going on.
