The midterm elections are just over two months away. The fate of President Donald Trump’s agenda is on the line. The media is talking a lot about the races in Texas, Georgia, and Michigan. Texas looks closer than it should, with Low-T Talarico as the Democrats’ nominee. Georgia looks like it’s going to reelect Jon Ossoff for some reason. Democrat primary voters in Michigan put their state in play when they nominated Abdul El-Sayed as their nominee. Ohio is another state getting some ink for being close.
It seems like each midterm season, some surprise states appear competitive even though they shouldn’t be. There’s one state that isn’t getting a lot of attention right now, and perhaps it should. And that state is New Hampshire.
I grew up in Massachusetts, just close enough to New Hampshire that I spent Election Day 2004 knocking on doors for Democrats in the Granite State … because, well … Massachusetts.
Anyway, New Hampshire went blue that night, and it never looked back. For two decades, I’ve written off the state. Then a poll landed in my feed this week that made me stop scrolling. What if everyone, myself included, has been wrong about New Hampshire?
That poll comes from the University of New Hampshire and 7NEWS, and it has former Sen. John E. Sununu (R-N.H.) leading his likely general-election opponent, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.), 45% to 43% in a hypothetical Senate matchup. A statistical tie may not be much, but just three months earlier, UNH had Pappas ahead by three points.
That's a five-point swing toward the Republican in a single summer.
NEW POLL: @SununuSenator takes the lead in New Hampshire! 🔥
— Senate Republicans (@NRSC) August 26, 2026
🔴 John Sununu 45%
🔵 Chris Pappas 43%
UNH poll | 8/20-8/24 pic.twitter.com/zdsyGaXero
UNH poll | 8/20-8/24
— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) August 26, 2026
US Senate New Hampshire 2026
🟥John E. Sununu 45%
🟦Chris Pappas 43%
——
🟦Chris Pappas 45%
🟥Scott Brown 40%
——
US Senate New Hampshire Democratic primary 2026
🟦Chris Pappas 47%
🟦Karishma Manzur 34%
Link to poll: https://t.co/9jXdDHNiWi pic.twitter.com/F700lsHpXQ
How is this possible?
To begin with, Sununu isn't a stranger to New Hampshire voters. He won a statewide Senate race in 2002, served one term, and lost it to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) in 2008. Before that, he spent six years in Congress representing New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District, the same seat Pappas has held since 2019. His father and his brother both served as governor of New Hampshire before him. Being a known quantity certainly helps. It’s also helpful that this is an open seat since Shaheen is retiring after this term.
But here’s the thing: If the current political environment were as brutal for Republicans as the conventional wisdom insists, Sununu wouldn't be within striking distance in August. The question isn't whether Republicans can compete in New Hampshire this year; it's whether anyone is paying attention to the fact that they already are.
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Pappas is running the campaign you'd expect from a Democrat trying to hold a seat in a state trending less blue than it used to be. He's positioning himself as a champion of the middle class, as Democrats always try to do, promising to lower the cost of living and protect public education, Medicaid, and Social Security.
Sununu is running as a straightforward conservative, promising to cut taxes, slash regulations, and "make government work again."
According to a report from WBUR, National Republican super PACs clearly like his odds and are investing millions of dollars to help his campaign.
New Hampshire hasn't been on anyone's radar this cycle, and that's probably a mistake. With an open seat and a Republican who has already won a statewide election within striking distance in the final months of the campaign, this is exactly the kind of race Republicans can flip when nobody is looking.
