Everyone in politics wants to talk about the midterms right now, and that's understandable. But the moment the last ballot gets counted in November, the 2028 presidential race begins, whether anyone is ready for it or not. For Republicans, that's an exciting prospect. For Democrats, it's shaping up to be a slow-motion identity crisis. A party that knows what it stands for usually knows who it wants leading it. Democrats, however, don’t have a clue.
Republicans have the luxury of a deep bench. Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and a roster of successful GOP governors give the party real options and a clear direction. Democrats have a crowded stage, and nobody is standing in the spotlight.
The closest thing the Democrats have for a frontrunner is Kamala Harris, and her frontrunner status is superficial at best.
On Tuesday, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten walked through new 2028 polling, and when anchor Kate Bolduan asked him where Kamala Harris stands, Enten started with the voters themselves.
"[The Democratic base] don't know what the heck they want," Enten said. "This field is historically messy. It's messier than an airport Sunday after Thanksgiving."
The data backs him up. Kamala may lead the pack, but she leads it with a meager 17%. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg sits right behind her at 16%, while Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) each pull 14%. That puts four candidates within three points of one another.
"The clear thing to take away here is there is no clear leader in this group," Enten added. "This is a field that is messier than any Democratic field in at least 20 years, I would argue, the messiest, least clear Democratic field since 1992."
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The bigger story is Kamala's weak performance. In July 2024, just as Joe Biden bowed out of the race, she polled at 45% as Democrats' top choice for the nomination. Today she's at 17%, which means she has shed well over half of her support. Think about that for a second. This is the woman with universal name recognition, the former vice president and a woman of color no less, and the best head start of anyone in the party, and her numbers keep going down. She may be ahead, but her lead is not secure.
Enten offered a useful comparison. "What you really want to be is more where Trump was at this point. Back in the 2024 cycle, he was at 49%," he said. "49% is not anything like 17%. This is a weak place for a frontrunner."
Then he delivered the kicker. "These are the types of numbers that would really make me think twice about running," Enten said.
I still say she is going to run. And her best option is to declare early. But she’s clearly doing some 2028 positioning. The poll dropped just hours before Kamala headed to Michigan to appear alongside Socialist Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed for some roundtable event. Appearing with El-Sayed, especially when many establishment Democrats are keeping their distance, is a clear 2028 flex, even though she hasn't announced a campaign or publicly committed to running again.
No clear leader in Democrat 2028 field.
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) September 22, 2026
"This is a field that is messier than any Democratic field in at least 20 years. I would argue, the messiest, least clear democratic field since 1992.” —Harry Enten pic.twitter.com/9YNMrjVfrp
This is a structural problem for the left, and a bad news cycle won't explain it away. The party's pseudo frontrunner is basically neck and neck with several other candidates. Republicans will head into 2028 choosing between strong options. Democrats have had a long time to figure out who they want to lead their party into the future and they still don’t know. So, they will head into 2028 still trying to figure out what they want, and right now, even their own voters can't tell them.
