It’s been obvious for a while now that Kamala Harris is positioning herself for another presidential run. And it makes sense from a certain point of view, as Obi-Wan Kenobi might say. Yes, she’s not particularly bright, but she is a former vice president. Yes, she ran and lost bigly in 2024, but, as she’s always rushing to point out, she technically only had 107 days to campaign. There has been a sense of inevitability of Kamala’s 2028 presidential run, but now, insiders are casting doubt.
And I’m calling bullcrap.
An Axios survey of eight former Kamala aides and advisers found just one who thought she'd probably run. Two called it a toss-up. Five expect her to sit this one out.
That's a lot of skepticism from people who know her best. It's also wrong.
I did a little digging and found that every vice president in the last 46 years has sought the presidency except for Dick Cheney, and I don’t think anyone expected him to. Walter Mondale ran in 1984. George H.W. Bush ran in 1988. Dan Quayle even ran in 2000. Al Gore obviously ran that same year. Joe Biden ran in 2020, and would have run in 2016 if Barack Obama hadn’t convinced him that it was Hillary Clinton’s moment. Even Mike Pence ran in 2024, knowing full well he had no shot at the GOP nomination.
Kamala is 61, young enough to run in 2028, 2032, or beyond. On top of that, she spent four years hoping Joe Biden wouldn't make it to the end of his term. She was one heartbeat away from the presidency and didn't get there.
Imagine being that close and not getting there.
Now, you could argue that she ran and lost in 2024, and that was her moment. But she never won a single primary vote in 2024. She got the Democrat Party's nomination by coronation after Joe Biden dropped out, and has spent the time since blaming her loss largely on how little time she had to campaign. I’m sure she believes that had she been given more time to campaign, she could have won.
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Former aides argue that her recent activity, like campaigning for midterm candidates, making the podcast rounds, and promoting her book, is just an effort to stay relevant within the Democrat Party rather than the start of another campaign. One former aide said Kamala is doing the "bare minimum" necessary to remain part of the 2028 conversation. Former staffers said a real campaign buildup would look different.
I don’t buy it.
When you spend four years a heartbeat away from the presidency to someone like Joe Biden, you don't walk away from your shot for something as cheap as influence.
Don’t get me wrong, there are plenty of reasons Kamala shouldn’t run and why the party wouldn’t want her to. Running again would mean reopening the whole debate over her 2024 loss to Donald Trump. There’s also the fact that the donor class likely isn’t about to gamble on her a second time after she raised and spent more than a billion dollars to lose every single swing state.
Kamala has said, publicly and privately, that she hasn't made up her mind. Some of the former aides who doubt her admit they could be wrong, or that their skepticism reflects their own hope that she stays out. And I think that’s what’s really happening here. Kamala may be trying to position herself as the anti-establishment candidate, which, of course, is a tough narrative to sell when you were a vice president, but that’s why she’s cozying up to radicals like Abdul El-Sayed, and you might want to check under Hasan Piker’s desk.
Another factor suggesting Kamala has every reason to run is that she remains at or near the top of early 2028 Democrat primary polling. Yes, that’s a reflection of name recognition, but for her, that’s validation that this is her moment, and being “the first woman of color vice president” is the kind of identity politics that the Democrat Party eats up.
There's no real reason to think she's staying out, especially while she's still leading the pack.
