I was mildly pessimistic about the GOP's chances for success in the 2026 midterms. History was against the Republicans, as a party that controls the presidency and Congress generally gets clobbered in midterms. Also, the issues that American voters care about are not in the GOP's wheelhouse. If the Democrats are successful in making this an "affordability election," Republicans will be swimming upstream.
However, the fact is that this is, indeed, 2026, and "history" is proving to be worth exactly squat when predicting elections. The results this November will depend more on the voters' perception of which side understands and speaks to their real concerns.
"Affordability" is a catchphrase, not a definition or a policy declaration. Democrats are going to rely, as they have been since at least 2008, on radical racial politics and trying to paint the right as Nazis or closet kluxers.
Josh Barro wrote an essay pointing out that the enthusiastic support for "bomb-thrower" Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) in her bid for the Democratic Party nomination to the U.S. Senate demonstrates why many Democrats are stuck in the past, trying to define everything through the prism of race.
Not only is Crockett a hyper-partisan nut, but she's also out-and-out stupid.
Or, consider what Crockett said when Republicans sought to censure Stacey Plaskett, the non-voting delegate representing the U.S. Virgin Islands, for her ties to the late Jeffrey Epstein. Crockett went to the House floor with a list of Republicans who had taken donations from “Jeffrey Epstein,” including Lee Zeldin, the former congressman from Long Island who now serves as EPA Administrator. But there was a problem — the Jeffrey Epstein who donated to Zeldin is a Long Island neurosurgeon who made his donations in 2020, after the notorious Manhattan financier Epstein had died.
Her explanation for getting the two Jeffery Epsteins mixed up is a primer on how to never admit you're wrong, even not doing so makes you look even dumber.
"Listen, I never said that it was that Jeffrey Epstein," she told CNN's Kaitlan Collins. "Just so that people understand, when you make a donation, your picture is not there… unlike Republicans, I at least don’t go out and just tell lies. Because it was not the same one — that’s fine."
Barro points out that "she’s a loudmouth who talks a lot of s**t in a way that’s neither smart nor strategic." He added, "She appeals to the sort of voter who is so partisan that he or she thinks 'I never said that it was that Jeffrey Epstein” is a good argument."
For this reason, Crockett has a very good chance of winning the Democratic Party primary in March to face either incumbent Sen. John Cornyn or Attorney General Ken Paxton, who are running neck and neck in the polls. She's running eight points behind Rep. James Talarico, another radical left bomb-thrower. Barro believes, "what makes him stand out in the crowd is his choir boy/seminarian persona."
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Barro sees the problem because Democratic Party voters have developed "deeply dysfunctional relationships to black women as political candidates." Not just Crockett, but Kamala Harris, Stacey Abrams, Fani Willis, and Tish James. These are all barely competent (or worse) office holders who have legions of white liberals standing up for them, no matter what stupidity or illegal crap they pull.
Of course, the grant of inherent moral authority does not extend to all black women, but only to black women who agree with the person issuing the grant — as Steve Morris noted on this week’s Central Air (see link below), a liberal who worships Crockett or Abrams is unlikely to extend the same reverence to a socialist like Nina Turner or a moderate like Lauren Underwood, let alone to a Republican like Winsome Earle-Sears. But the idea that moral authority arises from black female identity is what makes Crockett so popular as a meme: liberals, even if they are not themselves black or female, can share her “clapbacks” online and see them as final-boss slams that win arguments, even if what she is saying is false (Zeldin accepted money from Epstein) or politically damaging (Hispanic voters have a “slave mentality”) or contentless (Greene has a “bleach-blond bad-built butch-body”).
They have created a mythos around black female candidates because "black women are an essential part of the Democratic Party coalition — they vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, and their votes are needed to win elections." This mythos has led "to a view that there is inherent moral authority that arises from being a black female Democrat," Barro writes.
As long as Democratic midterm voters are stuck in that mindset, neither Crockett nor Talarico has much of a chance against any Republican in the field.
The same might be said of Democrats across the country. Republican losses will be minimized, and in some districts, the left will actually work in the GOP's favor, giving it a fighting chance of maintaining control of Congress.
The new year promises to be one of the most pivotal in recent history. Midterm elections will determine if we continue to move forward or slide back into lawfare, impeachments, and the toleration of fraud.
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