Congress is back in the capital, so make sure you lock up your wives and daughters and hide your wallet.
After you've done that, be prepared to have to mop the blood off the floor of the House chamber after Republicans war against each other for the soul of their party.
At stake is whether Republicans want to be a governing party or a party of chaos. They can't be both but some members apparently can't make up their minds. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is already sharpening her tomahawk getting ready to scalp Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) if he brings a Ukraine funding bill to the floor. She's threatening to offer a motion to vacate the speaker's chair if he does.
In truth, many members are sick and tired of the drama. But since it only takes one member to ask for a vote on Johnson's continued time in office, it depends on how much grief Greene wants to endure from her fellow Republicans.
Greene wants action on the border before doing anything about Ukraine.
“We are losing our country to the illegal invasion — that’s happening every single day at our southern border. And I am so pissed off about it because the American people are pissed off about it,” she said recently on Tucker Carlson’s show on X. “This isn’t a Republican speaker we have right now; this is a Democrat speaker of the House because there is zero daylight between what Nancy Pelosi did last Congress and what Mike Johnson is doing now as our so-called Republican speaker of the House.”
Unkind words to a man in an impossible position. If he refuses to bring Ukraine aid to the floor, Johnson and the Republicans would be perceived as responsible for a Ukraine defeat. If he brings the $60 billion Ukraine aid package to the floor, the 55% of Republicans who oppose funding for the war would see it as a betrayal.
Rewarding Vladimir Putin for invading Ukraine is not a good look for the GOP for the upcoming election. But supplying Ukraine with resources to resist Russia while not giving the border patrol the means and manpower necessary to slow the influx of illegal immigrants at the border would anger many Republicans.
Republicans’ fragile, two-seat advantage over Democrats means that just a handful of GOP rebels could team up with all Democrats to end Johnson’s nascent speakership, in the same fashion that toppled his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy. Some Democrats say they may rescue Johnson if such a vote happens, although Johnson’s allies believe those comments only weaken his standing within his own party.
If Greene or another Republican forces a vote to oust Johnson, just a majority vote would remove him as speaker.
Johnson knows he's on thin ice. He told The Dispatch that a shutdown necessitated by a new election for speaker wouldn't serve the interests of anyone.
“I respect Marjorie. She will always have an open door to the Speaker’s office. We do have honest differences on strategy sometimes, but share the same conservative beliefs,” said Johnson in a statement. “In spite of our Republican majority of just a single seat in just one chamber of Congress, we are still fighting this administration every day to make policy changes. A shutdown would not have served our party or assist us in our mission of saving the republic by growing our majority, nor will another motion to vacate.”
Johnson has a very narrow path to passing Ukraine aid. There is growing sentiment on the Hill to pass the REPO Act, which would seize billions in assets from Russian oligarchs and pass them on to Ukraine. The move would assuage some Republicans who complain about the cost of arming Ukraine.
“He is trying to see what he can couple to Ukraine to make it somewhat more palatable,” said one GOP operative in Washington.
But the most probable approach Johnson will take is to combine aid to Israel with aid to Ukraine into one bill. Some Democrats oppose aid to Israel because of the high number of civilian casualties claimed by Hamas. There may be enough pro-Ukraine Republicans and pro-Israel Democrats to pass the bill.
Will it mean the end of his speakership?
If Johnson’s quest for a Ukraine deal hastens a vote on Greene’s motion, it could also be what saves his speakership, at least this time. In October 2023, 208 Democrats joined just eight Republicans to remove McCarthy after Republican Matt Gaetz’s own motion to vacate. But it’s possible that enough House Democrats who want to fund Ukraine aid would reward Johnson’s good-faith effort and recognize that, until a more stable majority is elected, upheaval in the speaker’s office doesn’t serve the country’s best interest. If this happens, don’t expect Democrats to actually vote for Johnson—it’s more likely a critical mass of them would simply not vote on the motion.
I think Johnson has to remain true to the GOP goal of not passing Ukraine aid without more money for the border. When that plan fails, Johnson might then offer the $95 billion Senate foreign aid bill, which includes money for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and Asian security.
It's a long shot. Otherwise, Democrats still have a discharge petition circulating that could force Ukraine aid to the floor for a vote. But that's an even longer shot since the measure would have to get two-thirds of Congress to approve it.
