The Democratic Party is currently experiencing some of its worst polling in decades, and conventional wisdom suggests the GOP should have a banner year in 2026. But we shouldn’t get lulled into complacency. Despite all the signs that suggest the GOP is going to do well in 2026, there are signs that it could be a disaster.
The latest special election in Pennsylvania's 36th State Senate District just exposed a weakness in the GOP that should have every Republican strategist breaking out in a cold sweat. Conventional wisdom said Lancaster County wouldn't elect a Democrat to the state senate, but, lo and behold, it did.
Democrat James Malone's victory over Republican Josh Parsons in Lancaster County has left me asking a rather important question: Do Republican voters need Trump on the ballot to show up?
I must point out that this wasn't some purple district that could go either way. We're talking about an area Trump won with 57% of the vote in 2024, which has a massive 23-point Republican voter registration advantage.
Let that sink in. The GOP lost a district where they outnumber Democrats by 23 points. This should have been an easy win for the GOP. Naturally, Democrats are seeing this as a massive rebuke against Trump and a sign that the Democratic Party is well positioned to win in future elections.
"In a district that went to Trump by 15 in 2024 and has a 23-point Republican voter registration advantage, Malone's victory is a loud and clear rebuke to Republicans' threats to the programs Pennsylvania families rely on," DNC Chair Ken Martin said in a statement.
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Obviously, this is exactly the narrative you would expect from the chairman of the Democratic National Committee. It’s his job to spin everything in a positive way for the party. Heck, if Malone had lost, the statement would have replaced “Malone’s victory” with “Malone’s competitiveness in this race” and been exactly the same otherwise.
According to Heather Williams, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, Democrats are "on a roll" in state legislative races, and this "should put Republicans on edge.”
She’s not entirely wrong, but this wasn’t so much a Democrat victory as something far more troubling. The real story here is depressed Republican turnout when Trump isn't on the ballot.
The GOP base seems to be developing a troubling habit of electoral apathy when Trump's name isn't at the top of the ballot. And here's the reality check we need. We have very important midterm elections in 2026, and Trump will leave office in 2029. What happens then?
When Republicans can't be bothered to show up and vote in a district they dominate by double digits, we've got a serious problem on our hands.
Here's the uncomfortable truth: The Republican Party needs to figure out how to motivate voters without relying on Trump's star power. If we can't solve this turnout problem, we're looking at a future where Democrats can flip even the reddest districts simply by waiting for a special election or an off-year race.
The conservative movement can't survive as a one-man show. Either the GOP figures out how to get voters to the polls without Trump on the ballot, or we can kiss our hopes of long-term electoral success goodbye. And that's not just bad news for the party—it's bad news for America.
