In the heat of every election season, as October looms, the political world braces for the inevitable October surprise — the late-breaking bombshell designed to sway voters against a political candidate. So far, the 2024 election has been such a whirlwind of craziness, complete with an assassination attempt and a candidate switcharoo. What more could possibly happen to shake up this election? Some think they have the answer.
The introduction of Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket has shaken up the presidential race, but the honeymoon period didn't exactly give her a strong enough bounce. It appears to be subsiding already. Sure, Democrats are more energized now than they were with Biden on top of the ticket, but that likely won't last. Will another shake-up be necessary to help drag her across the finish line?
Related: Top Pollster Finds That the ‘Harris Surge’ Is Over
According to Steve Krakauer, a NewsNation contributor writing at The Hill, that shake-up could be Biden's resignation and Kamala's ascension to the presidency.
"A Biden exit in September or October would be particularly useful as a distraction from the race," he writes. "The establishment media would get sidetracked with the Biden resignation, as well as the next phase — the introduction of President Kamala Harris. The history associated with the first female president, plus the bevy of stories about what it even means to have this massive transition, would allow for weeks of relatively substance-free coverage."
He continues, "And what would Harris gain from being elevated to the top job? First, she’d get to run as an incumbent, which has historically helped presidential candidates. And she can make the case that she’s just getting started in the job and needs the vote of America to begin her real work."
Krakauer even suggests that such an October surprise would serve as an adequate distraction from the September debate (he must not think that Kamala will do well) as well as ensure people are less focused on the economy or immigration.
That's a whole other hilarious point worth getting into another time.
But would this happen? I don't see Biden voluntarily resigning. Could the Democrats blackmail him into doing it? They could try, but I doubt it.
As we've previously reported, Democrats threatened Biden with the 25th Amendment. To invoke it, Harris, as the sitting vice president, would have to join a majority of the Cabinet. I don't think Kamala's role in such a deliberate coup would play as well as the previous coup did for the Democrats.
There's another problem with this theory. As Axios previously reported, Kamala has been trying to unburden herself with what has been and "distance herself from President Biden's unpopularity on the economy," and she "doesn't want to be completely defined by the Biden-Harris record."
That's a tough sell as the sitting vice president, but if she suddenly inherits the Oval Office through presidential succession, she can't really distance herself. Also, with a recession looming, it would be that much harder for her to try to separate herself from the policies that caused the recession in the first place.
That doesn't mean it won't happen. However, it's not likely that Biden will go voluntarily, and there are factors and risks that Krakauer doesn't consider.
