Everyone knew that Kamala Harris would experience a surge in polling after she became the presumptive nominee once Democrats successfully pushed Joe Biden out of the race. The question has always been how long the honeymoon would last. According to a top pollster, the honeymoon appears to be over now.
On August 2, after taking the top spot on the Democrat ticket, Harris enjoyed a five-point lead in a poll from veteran pollster Scott Rasmussen of RMG Research, putting her ahead 47% to Donald Trump's 42%. However, just a week later, that lead had already shrunk to a mere point, with Harris leading 44% to 43%.
Now, according to Rasmussen's latest poll, sponsored by the Napolitan Institue, the momentum has shifted back to Trump. The poll of 3,000 likely voters reveals that Trump now leads Harris 46% to 45%. When including those leaning toward a candidate, Trump's advantage widens to 49% to Harris's 47%. This six-point swing since August 2 highlights Trump's resurgence and Harris's fading momentum.
"These numbers suggest that the initial Harris bounce is over. However, the core dynamics of the race remain unchanged," explains the Napolitan News Service. "Love him or hate him, voters know what they think of Donald Trump. At this point in time, Kamala Harris remains largely unknown. That means events like the upcoming Democratic convention and presidential debates could have a bigger impact than usual."
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"As a result, the race for the White House remains too close to call. Anybody who says they know who will win is either lying to you or to themselves,” Napolitan continued. "Trump voters are slightly more likely to vote than Harris supporters. So, the former president does a bit better with a lower turnout."
A separate poll that Rasmussen Reports released on Thursday showed Trump up four points nationally, a Fox News poll earlier this week had Trump up by a point, and a poll from J.L. Partners earlier this week showed Trump leading Harris 43%-41%.
"Do not get us wrong. Harris has made big inroads—especially with young voters and blacks—and she has started to close the gap with independents. But Trump holds an advantage with his base, who remain more energized, and has held his position with whites, Hispanics, and voters over the age of 50," James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners, said.
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This doesn't mean that we won't still see polls showing Harris ahead. It may take another couple of weeks for things to settle down, especially after next week's Democratic National Convention, but the Kamala bounce looks to be ending now. After that, we'll be able to see where the race stands.
“There is no question that Harris will get her bump earlier than the Democrats’ Convention. And that bump is likely to start showing itself over the next few days and will last a while until the race settles back down,” Trump Campaign Pollster Tony Fabrizio warned in a campaign memo last month. “The Democrats and the MSM will try and tout these polls as proof that the race has changed. But the fundamentals of the race stay the same."
