If you're watching the polls, you've likely seen that Kamala Harris has been ahead in nearly all of them for the past week or so. We expected Kamala to have a "honeymoon period" upon becoming the presumptive nominee for her party, so in many ways, it wasn't exactly a surprise to see that polls tightened.
However, if you're on Team Kamala, you were probably hoping for a larger lead in the polls than the 1.1-point advantage she currently has in the RealClearPolitics average. A new poll conducted by J.L. Partners for DailyMail.com suggests that the honeymoon is ending.
According to the poll, which surveyed 1,001 likely voters, Trump still leads Harris 43-41 nationally, with a margin of error of 3.1 points.
A separate online survey teased out the attributes responsible for Trump's lead. It found that voters still see him as the stronger, more charismatic candidate, who is more likely to get things done.
Even so, Harris scores better than Biden across the board. And it all suggests that she is shaping up to be a more formidable opponent than the 81-year-old she replaced.
James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners, noted that despite a challenging stretch, the poll still contained several positive indicators for Trump.
"Do not get us wrong. Harris has made big inroads—especially with young voters and blacks—and she has started to close the gap with independents. But Trump holds an advantage with his base, who remain more energized, and has held his position with whites, Hispanics, and voters over the age of 50," he said. "Harris's biggest support remains relatively limited to 18 to 49-year-olds. A lot of this is due to Trump’s dominance on the issues of the economy and the border."
The race is tighter, but the fundamentals still favor Donald Trump.
"But at the moment we are looking at a race made tighter, rather than transformed to a Harris shoo-in," Johnson continued. "All eyes now should be on the independents. If Harris can make more progress with them, then we could see Trump's advantage disappear."
Harris was catapulted into the race after Biden announced last month that he was giving up his reelection campaign.
Trump insiders were initially jubilant, expecting weeks of Democratic infighting. But the party quickly rallied around the vice president and will show a united front at its convention in Chicago next week.
The result has been a series of polls showing that Harris has overturned, or at least reined in, Trump's clear poll lead.
Trump took aim at Harris during a conversation with Elon Musk, owner of the X social media platform, on Monday evening.
'She is a San Francisco liberal who destroyed San Francisco, and then as attorney-general, she destroyed California,' he said.
The accusation that Harris is a liberal has found traction with voters, who said in our survey it was their number-one hesitation in voting for her.
Despite the poll showing that linking Kamala to radical left-wing policies has been effective, which is a top concern about her in the survey, she outperforms Biden compared to Trump in several key areas, such as respondents viewing her as "strong," "competent," and aligned with voters' priorities, though it's hard to understand why. While Trump still leads on attributes like "gets things done" and "charisma," Harris has strengthened her lead in areas like "caring," "moral," and "stands for me."
For sure, one poll showing Trump up doesn't tell us a whole lot, but if we see more polls showing Trump ahead. Remember, prior to the candidate swap, Kamala was the most unpopular vice president in the history of polling. There's a reason for this, and putting her on top of the ticket doesn't change her fundamental weaknesses.
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