Ever since Trump’s first term, the political and media establishment told us that his trade policies were reckless, destructive, and doomed to wreck the U.S. economy. Every so-called expert on cable TV preached that they would crush American consumers, tank the stock market, and send our economy into a spiral.
We’re still waiting for that to happen.
Here we are in Aug. 2025, and the Congressional Budget Office just dropped a bombshell that completely shatters the left’s narrative against Trump’s tariff strategy.
As of August 19, we estimate that the effective tariff rate for goods imported into the United States has increased by about 18 percentage points when measured against 2024 trade flows. We project that increases in tariffs implemented during the period from January 6, 2025, to August 19 will decrease primary deficits (which exclude net outlays for interest) by $3.3 trillion if the higher tariffs persist for the 2025‒2035 period. By reducing the need for federal borrowing, those tariff collections will also reduce federal outlays for interest by an additional $0.7 trillion. As a result, the changes in tariffs will reduce total deficits by $4.0 trillion altogether.
That’s no rounding error.
The numbers are simply eye-popping, and they tell the story that the media doesn’t want you to know.
Let’s put that in perspective. Back in June, the CBO had already stunned critics by predicting Trump’s tariffs would shrink the deficit by $3 trillion. That was based only on trade actions taken through May 13.
Trump, naturally, celebrated the news on Truth Social.
“I am pleased to announce that the Radical Left Representatives working at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) have now admitted how incredible my Tariff strategy has been, saying that, ‘Trump’s Tariffs reduce the deficit by $4 Trillion Dollars,’” he wrote. “When I began my Tariff policy suggestions, they refused to acknowledge the potential SUCCESS that would be derived. Deficits are DOWN, Taxes are DOWN, Energy is DOWN, Prices generally are DOWN, the only things that are UP are, Take Home Pay, the Stock Market, and our Country, which is the ‘HOTTEST’ anywhere in the World. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
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Of course, the CBO is cautious to note its projections assume these trade policies remain in place indefinitely. It also didn’t factor in several adjustments announced just this past week: new EU tariff arrangements on August 21, a 25% tariff hike on imports from India starting Aug. 27, and the suspension of duty-free shipments under $800 coming Aug. 29. In other words, the real revenue picture could easily turn out even stronger than the current forecast.
Here’s the bigger point no one in the mainstream press will admit: tariffs, when wielded strategically, can be a double win. They level the playing field for American producers, whom foreign governments have undercut for decades by gaming the system, and they generate revenue that actually reduces the insane borrowing spree Washington politicians tried to normalize.
They told us Trump’s tariffs would wreck the economy—yet deficits are plummeting by trillions, numbers the media ignores. PJ Media stands firm exposing the real story. Become a PJ Media VIP member today—use code FIGHT for 60% off—and lock in ad-free, exclusive reporting. Fight back. Join now!
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