Last week's debate between President-ish Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will likely go down as the most consequential presidential debate in history, especially if Biden ultimately drops out. Right now, it's hard to say whether that will happen, but I have a few observations about the state of the race as it stands now.
Biden could wait out the storm
Big donors that fund Biden's campaign are closing their wallets, there are widespread calls from the pro-Biden mainstream media for him to withdraw, and at least 25 House Democrats are reportedly about to call on him to drop out. Biden himself is reportedly considering leaving the race if he can't convince the public that everything is fine. Meanwhile, the fallout from the debate has put even more states within reach for Donald Trump.
While the knee-jerk reaction to Biden's debate performance has been severe, it's very likely that the impact of the debate on the polls could subside over time, and Biden may be inclined to wait things out. Remember, Biden saw a modest boost after the State of the Union, but it was temporary. It's entirely possible that the impact from the debate will likewise diminish. The Republican National Convention is approaching, and the announcement of Trump's running mate could be the distraction Democrat voters need to move on from the debate.
Related: Leaked Post-Debate Internal Democrat Poll Shows Epic Disaster for Biden in November
Replacing Joe Biden is a huge gamble
Another thing Biden has going for him is that replacing him, whether it's before or after the convention, is extremely risky, both politically and legally. Biden stepping aside is likely to prompt a major battle within the Democratic Party for who might take his place. Kamala Harris is the only candidate who would inherit most of his campaign war chest, but do the Democrats really want to bank the election on the least popular vice president in the history of polling? I doubt it. But then, passing over "the first black woman vice president" could cause a severe backlash. Meanwhile, polling shows that virtually every likely alternative to Biden is still losing to Trump.
Michelle Obama won’t run, but...
There is one caveat to a post-Biden presidential race. While most of the alternative candidates poll roughly as badly against Trump as Biden, one person polls ahead. According to a new Ipsos poll, Michelle Obama is the only Democrat who polls better than Trump in a head-to-head match. The poll claims that 50% of registered voters would back Michelle, while 39% would back Trump.
I still believe that Michelle Obama will not run and that this poll is a mirage. Michelle Obama has never held political office before or participated in a political debate. She may be popular among the left, and may even attract some independents, but that star would fade quickly. Earlier this year, a Daily Mail/J.L. Partners poll found that Michelle Obama performed no better against Donald Trump than Joe Biden would, and that Trump was beating her among independents. So, there's that.
A second debate won't play out the same way
Hypothetically speaking, if Biden survives the fallout and stays in the race, we're going to see a far more controlled campaign going forward. While most people have predicted that a second debate won't happen, the Biden campaign absolutely needs a second debate — especially if he's unable to chip away at Trump's post-debate lead. If another debate between Trump and Biden takes place, the Biden who shows up to that debate will most likely not be the same Biden who showed up to debate Trump on Thursday. We'll see something closer to the Biden we saw at the State of the Union, medication-wise.
Flashback: Need More Proof Biden Was Drugged for the State of the Union? Here It Is.
Beware Judge Merchan
There's another wildcard in this election. Trump is due to be sentenced later this month. It had been widely predicted that Trump wouldn't be given any jail time, but those predictions were made largely before or immediately after the verdict — which was before Trump erased Biden's cash advantage and before Biden botched the debate. Polls are showing that the election has swung heavily in Trump's favor since the debate, which means that District Attorney Alvin Bragg and Judge Merchan may see themselves as being the only ones who can stop Trump from getting reelected. Bragg has already refused to take recommending jail time off the table, and Merchan may heed such a recommendation to thwart Trump.
