It is widely agreed upon that the 2024 presidential election will be close. Of course, after last week, Democrats are panicking and hoping that Joe Biden can be convinced to drop out. At the moment, the White House and the Biden campaign are defiantly resisting calls for him to do so. Nevertheless, the debate may have changed the trajectory of the election.
How so, you asked? I point you to the following map based on RealClearPolitics' averages that include toss-up states.:
Here is the @RCPolling electoral map with toss-ups.
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) July 2, 2024
Trump's map is expanding. pic.twitter.com/IDtA6oDcN9
Minnesota and Virginia have only recently been put into the toss-up column, so that's not a huge surprise, but New Hampshire's inclusion is a new development. How did that happen? It's largely due to a post-debate poll out of the state showing Trump with a slight lead over Biden.
The poll, from Saint Anselm College, found 44% of New Hampshire voters picking Trump compared to 42% backing Joe Biden and just 4% backing Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Trump's two-point lead, while small, is nevertheless a remarkable 12-point swing from the same poll in December.
“After a remarkable six months that saw him swiftly dispatch his primary rivals and become the first former President to be convicted of a felony, Donald Trump has erased a ten-point polling deficit and now leads President Joe Biden by a narrow 2-point margin,” New Hampshire Institute of Politics Director Neil Levesque told The Hill.
New Hampshire has not been considered a battleground state during this campaign, and for good reason. George W. Bush was the last Republican to win the state, back in 2000. It has since voted for Democrats, though it has been considerably less blue than other New England states like Massachusetts and Vermont. Nevertheless, Joe Biden handily won the state in 2020, 52.7% to Trump's 45.4%.
"Biden leads among voters who dislike both candidates. However, more Democratic voters are drifting toward independent candidates than their Republican counterparts. While 89% of Republicans are solidly backing Trump, Biden secures the support of only 82% of Democrats," Levesque said in a statement. "For Biden to succeed, he must solidify his support among very liberal voters. Currently, only 67% of this group supports him, with 15% still undecided. Trump, on the other hand, is faring better among moderates (44% to 38%), undeclared voters (40% to 38%), and swing voters (39% to 21%).”
Related: The Biden Campaign Is in Chaos
Trump's lead may be within the poll's margin of error, but the swing in the state against Biden is undeniable. Trump continues to expand the map in his favor, which, at the very least, will force Biden to spend resources in states that had not been considered battlegrounds.
"I think people are very partisan," Levesque told WMUR, a local ABC affiliate in New Hampshire. "So, they're in their camps and they say, 'Well, I watched the debate, but it doesn't affect how I'm going to vote.' But certainly, events like a presidential debate like we saw last week are pivot points in politics, and at this point, with the amount of change we've seen with the presidential contest, certainly the debate had an effect."
