Make no mistake about it, the chances of Biden dropping out of the presidential race are as high as they've ever been. Many Democrats are privately saying he should drop out, and many in the media are openly calling for him to do so. The panic in the wake of his disastrous debate performance is very real. But, what would the reality of Biden dropping out look like? Are the Democrats really better off? Let's take a look.
According to NBC News, it would be easier to replace Biden after the convention because "all but a handful of the delegates to the Democratic convention were elected on their pledge to nominate him." This means that without a clear heir apparent, if Biden drops out before the convention it could "touch off a bloody eleventh-hour intraparty battle that might allow Trump to cruise to victory."
And there's no great way to force him out.
Moreover, according to a senior Democratic official, the party leadership would have much more control over choosing a replacement if Biden were to drop out after receiving the nomination than if he did so beforehand. Once a candidate is officially nominated, there is a process for the Democratic National Committee members to choose a successor. Biden is the dominant force at the DNC, and his preference for a successor would surely carry sway.
If Biden were to exit before that, his delegates might do what he asked of them — but they wouldn’t be bound in the same way they are now. In that scenario, the delegates could nominate anyone, and there could be a political brawl at the convention.
But, the political problems caused by his departure are only part of the story. The Heritage Foundation is gearing up for potential legal battles should the Democratic Party decide to replace President Biden as their nominee, either before or after he secures the nomination.
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"We are monitoring the calls from across the country for President Biden to step aside, either now or before the election, and have concluded that the process for substitution and withdrawal is very complicated," Mike Howell, the executive director of The Heritage Foundation’s Oversight Project, said in a statement. "We will remain vigilant that appropriate election integrity procedures are followed."
Fox News has more:
Heritage has already identified multiple states in which a switch away from Biden before or after the nomination could mean serious trouble for the Democratic Party.
In a separate statement, the Oversight Project warned, "If the Biden family decides that President Biden will not run for re-election, the mechanisms for replacing him on ballots vary by state. There is the potential for pre-election litigation in some states that would make the process difficult and perhaps unsuccessful.
"Given the expected intensity of election integrity concerns in this election cycle, policymakers and the public should be educated and aware of the contentious path ahead," it added.
Heritage points out that many states — including swing states such as Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin — might not allow a replacement on the ballot
In Wisconsin, a candidate's name can't be withdrawn from the ballot unless they die. Nevada allows changes to its ballot until 5:00 PM on the fourth Friday of June in the election year, with special provisions if a nominee dies or is mentally unfit. Will Biden allow himself to be declared mentally unfit? That would cause a constitutional crisis, as it would prompt calls for him to be removed via the 25th Amendment—which would put Kamala Harris in the Oval Office, making her the de facto incumbent. In Georgia, Biden could withdraw up to 60 days before the election; if he withdraws later, his name would stay on the ballot, but votes for him would be discarded. Other states have varying restrictions on timing and reasons for ballot withdrawal, while some have no procedures, which makes replacing Biden far more complex than most people realize, and may actually not be the best option for them.
The Democrats are in a pickle no matter how you slice it, and it's a situation they created themselves.
