We've been covering Joe Biden's problem with nonwhite voters for some time now. Just to recap: In the 2020 election, Biden won 87% of the black vote, but, according to a recent USA Today and Suffolk University poll, only 63% of black voters are now backing Biden. Other polls have corroborated this decline in support for Biden among this important demographic. A November poll by NYT/Sienna College focusing on six swing states revealed a substantial drop, with only 71% of black voters pledging their support to Biden for the upcoming 2024 election, in contrast to the 92% who endorsed him in 2020.
Biden's presidency has been hurting everyone, so it wouldn't be particularly shocking if this trend among traditionally Democrat-leaning groups were merely a reflection of their declining support for him — it would be expected. But according to a new poll from Gallup, Biden's problems are not his alone. The poll, released Wednesday, shows that nonwhite voters are also souring on the Democratic Party.
"Although Democrats continue to hold a formidable advantage over Republicans among non-Hispanic Black adults in the U.S., their current 47-point lead is the smallest Gallup has recorded in its polling, dating back to 1999," explains Gallup. "Most of the decline has been recent, with the net-Democratic ID for this group falling 19 points from a 66-point advantage in 2020. At that time, 77% of Black adults favored the Democrats and 11% the Republicans, so the 2023 findings represent an 11-point decrease in Democratic affiliation since 2020 and an eight-point increase in Republican affiliation."
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A similar trend is seen among Hispanic voters. Gallup found that 47% of Hispanic adults support the Democrats, while 35% support Republicans. While this is still a lead, it has shrunk from 28 points in 2020 to just 12 points in 2023.
These numbers make it very clear that Joe Biden isn't just driving minority voters to Trump; he's driving them to the Republican Party.
As if these problems aren't bad enough for the Democrats, they've also lost their advantage among young adults. In 2005, young adults were generally split between Republicans and Democrats, but by 2010, they were the only age category favoring Democrats. That advantage dwindled to just eight points in 2023, the slimmest margin since 2005.
"The data show the Democratic Party retaining advantages among people of color and young adults, but in 2023 it was in a weaker position among these groups than at any point in the past quarter century," Gallup notes. "Democrats’ reduced support among Black and Hispanic adults should be especially concerning for the party, given Republicans’ continued strength among White adults, who remain the majority of the electorate."
The fact that this trend has been observed over the last three years tells us that Biden's presidency, despite its endless pandering to minorities, has actually made minorities realize that Democrats have been taking them for granted.
