One of the most common claims I've seen from anyone who supported someone besides Donald Trump in the 2024 GOP presidential primaries is "Trump can't win the election."
Perhaps it was an excuse for supporting a Trump alternative or perhaps they believed it. I'm not sure. What I can say is that such claims, especially now, seem to be in spite of the polls, not because of them. As someone who backed Ron DeSantis in the primary, that wasn't my motivation for supporting him. I felt both men could win, and polls appeared to show that.
For sure, there have been polls showing Trump behind Joe Biden in national surveys. These days, however, the overwhelming majority of them show Trump ahead. But, some of the most stubborn supporters of Trump's primary opponents maintain this idea that Trump is headed for an epic defeat. The recent Quinnipiac poll showing Biden up six points is often cited by the anti-Trump wing of the Republican Party as proof of Trump's inevitable defeat. They also argued that polls had been artificially boosting Trump's general election performance as part of some conspiracy to ensure his victory in the primaries, and that once he had the nomination in the bag, the polls would turn.
To believe this, one has to buy into the ridiculous idea that there is a coordinated effort among all polling organizations to boost his support. And if that's what you believe, you can't be taken seriously.
For sure, it's easy to make that case when you cherrypick the polls you reference. But, make no mistake about it, everyone does this. In the past few weeks, both Trump's campaign and Nikki Haley's campaign have insisted they're the only ones who can defeat Biden in November—both teams citing polls that support their conclusion.
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The fact is that when we look at a wide selection of polls, they're all telling us the same thing: Trump is much stronger in 2024 than he was in 2020. Despite everything the Democrats have thrown at him, he not only still stands, but he's undeniably ahead. Trump not only leads in most matchup polls against Biden, he leads Biden on the most important issues that will drive voters to the polls, like the economy and immigration. In fact, he even beats Biden on the issue of competency in the latest NBC News poll.
“The poll also shows Trump holding a 16-point advantage over Biden on being competent and effective, a reversal from 2020, when Biden was ahead of Trump on this quality by 9 points before defeating him in that election,” NBC News said of its poll.
“What is most concerning is the erosion of Biden’s standing against Trump compared to four years ago,” Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates said of the poll. “On every measure compared to 2020, Biden has declined. Most damning, the belief that Biden is more likely to be up to the job — the chief tenet of the Biden candidacy — has evaporated.”
Horwitt conducted the poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who said, “It is hard to imagine a more difficult set of numbers before a re-election.”
Many on the right believed that Trump was unelectable back in 2016, too. I was one of them. I spent the entire Election Day 2016 convinced Hillary would win. Yet she didn't. Make no mistake about it, the polls show that Trump is stronger today than he was in 2016 or even 2020. You may not like Trump's style or demeanor, but do you really want to know what will happen to this country if Biden wins in November?
I sure don't.
