Hello and welcome to Friday, April 10, 2026. Among other things, today is National Hug Your Dog Day. Today is also National Cinnamon Crescent Day. You can accomplish both of those before breakfast.
1633: First bananas go on sale in London in the shop window of Thomas Johnson's apothecary.
1710: The first law regulating copyright is issued in Great Britain.
1790: U.S. patent system is formed.
1841: The New York Tribune begins publishing under editor Horace Greeley.
1849: Walter Hunt patents the safety pin; he sells the rights for $400, which would be about $16,000 today.
1861: William Barton Rogers establishes the Massachusetts Institute of Technology as a private land grant university in Cambridge, Mass.
1878: California Street Cable Car Railroad Co. starts service.
1912: RMS Titanic sets sail from Southampton for her maiden (and final) voyage.
1960: Senate passes landmark Civil Rights Bill.
1981: A computer glitch keeps Space Shuttle Columbia grounded.
Birthdays today include: Commodore Matthew C. Perry; William Booth, British preacher and founder of the Salvation Army; Joseph Pulitzer, Hungarian-American publisher and Democratic politician whose bequest founded the Columbia School of Journalism and the Pulitzer Prize; Martin Denny, American musician; actor Harry Morgan; actor and NBA and MLB player Chuck Connors; Vocalist Sheb Wooley; Junior Samples of Hee Haw fame; actor Omar Sharif; sportscaster John Madden; singer Danny Woods; Ken Griffey, Sr.; actor Steven Segal; pro bowler Mark Roth; political analyst Juan Williams; and Steve Tasker.
If today’s your birthday too, have a happy one.
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So what now for Iran? Look, I don't have a crystal ball here. I'm not clairvoyant. There are, however, some conclusions we can draw from what’s gone on thus far, some facts we know and can extrapolate from:
The regime hasn’t changed, really. The same totalitarian Islamic culture prevails for the moment, though a change of that status may be forthcoming. We’ll get to that.
The U.S. and Israel’s efforts have combined to inflict serious destruction on the Iranian government and on the nation (I regard these as two separate entities). Our actions have set the Islamic regime’s ability to wage war on the rest of the world back far enough where it can be fairly said the world is indeed a safer place, though not entirely so. Can any action give such an absolute guarantee?
The thing is that it has all gone down thus far with an ease that, relative to the gloom and doom and the fear that previous administrations held on such action, makes many wonder why we didn't make our move before now.
If the kind of success we’ve had was within the vision of those previous administrations, they would have done it themselves, and had they actually done so, the left and the press (But I repeat myself) would be trumpeting such action as an earthshaking success. As it is, Trump did it, so we hear all about mistakes made in the action, we hear about how tragic the loss of life is, and how it’s all our fault, we hear about how the ceasefire has already failed, how we’re Israel’s puppet, etc., etc. Standard fare from those folks anymore, and thus can be pretty much ignored. The losses are tragic of course, but have been much smaller than anyone but Trump’s people predicted.
Indeed, the former commander of CENTCOM, Frank McKenzie, stated it flatly on Face the Nation last Sunday, "...When I was CENTCOM commander, if you'd given me this situation at plus 30 days, I would have rejected it as being too optimistic by far."
That said, we knew the ceasefire was going to fail before the proverbial ink dried. Iran’s record is such that it is obvious that it uses peace talks as they use any other weapon against its enemy.
But to suggest, as so many on the left have over the last week, that our actions have not resulted in a much better position from the standpoint of security for the world is well outside the bounds of reason, though it does match nicely with the left’s political goals, which, as always, are making light of Trump's accomplishments. (Which I hasten to add, also seems to fall outside the bounds of reason with monotonous regularity).
An obvious example of the failure of the ceasefire would be the choke point at Hormuz.
Oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively halted despite a U.S.-backed ceasefire that hinged on reopening the critical waterway, raising fresh questions about whether Iran is following through on a central condition of the truce.
A backlog of roughly 3,200 vessels — among them 800 tankers and cargo ships — has built up west of the strait, with ships idling as operators wait for clarity on whether it is safe to pass.
Israeli intelligence sources are telling us the Strait is effectively under IRGC control. They’re holding onto that proverbial lever like one might a life preserver. With the regime’s military obliterated, this is literally the only leverage left to the Mullahs. The use of that leverage is exactly the kind of dishonorable action we’ve come to expect from the Islamic Republic. Along with, of course, the bloody massacre of protestors against the regime, as Catherine Salgado mentions today.
All of this is sure to be on the table in Pakistan tomorrow, where negotiations for a permanent ceasefire are scheduled.
(Side comment: If Trump were a king, wouldn't we be seeing such thought enforcement here? As it is, we see Democrats planning retaliation against the American people, as Amy Curtis mentions at Townhall. Anyway.)
It’s my guess that the two-week window is not only to allow the puppet show in Islamabad to happen but to give the U.S. and Israel the time to regroup and rearm, and to establish coordination with the latecomers to the fight, such as the UAE. Two weeks would give our folks the chance to ship weapons to the area, for use if/when the ceasefire fails. For the record, I assume it will indeed fail, and those added weapons will be required.
President Trump’s own statements are the clue, here. Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. would be "loading up with supplies of all kinds" in the Strait of Hormuz, framing it as ensuring the peace holds — though he has offered no specific details about what those supplies would include.
I suggest that the president knows full well, even if the Democrats here in the states and the cowards of NATO and the UN do not, that showing the ability to make good on his threats of “Back to the stone age” is the only language the IRGC and the Mullahs understand and the only situation the West may trust.
I also suggest that the IRGC’s interest in the ceasefire being extended to Lebanon as confirmation that Iran has at least some of its forces and weapons in Lebanon, which will magically appear in Iran again, once the heat is off. Israel doubtless has intel showing that, which explains its actions in what it calls "Operation Eternal Darkness.”
Israel says they’re hitting Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, but of course, Hezbollah is naught but another Iranian terror operation, ostensibly founded by Lebanese Shia clerics who adopted Ayatollah Khomeini's model after the 1979 Iranian Revolution. However, its forces were trained and organized by a contingent of 1,500 Revolutionary Guards from Iran, with permission from the Syrian government. Hezbollah officially aligned itself with the Iranian regime in 1985. Most of Hezbollah’s funding comes from Iran, a point our own State Department has continuously confirmed since 1985.
So that, too, will be a discussion point in Islamabad on Saturday. Do not mistake my acknowledgment of the Islamabad talks as suggesting I think they will be the end of this thing. As our Stephen Kruiser says today, War Is Not a Single News Cycle Spectator Sport.
You'll also want to look at Scott Pinsker's piece, Five Fearless Predictions About What Happens Next in the Iran War. I find his comments about NATO particularly worthwhile.
As for regime change in Iran, which I said I'd get to, I figure that if/when the talks in Islamabad either immediately or eventually fall through, a regime change will most certainly be the result of President Trump following through on his threats. Trump has threatened an action that dwarfs our actions thus far. That level of intensity does not leave much room for the IRGC or the insane mullah posse surviving. I cannot regard their demise as being anything but an enormously good thing.
Thought for the day: “My mother always used to say, ‘The older you get, the better you get. Unless you’re a banana.’” ―Betty White
I'll see you here tomorrow. Take care, and schedule in some fun this weekend.
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