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Wargaming the Electoral College

RCP AVERAGE NO LEANERS

Lots of movement in the last two weeks -- all of it towards Donald Trump.

Let's start once again with the RealClearPolitics poll-averaged map, but with all the leaning states stripped out.

On the surface, things don't look much different from August, when I wrote that on that month's maps, "the bad news is mostly Trump's." Ten weeks ago -- when we were still so young and innocent -- Clinton's base of hardcore Blue states was 154, and Trump's base of hardcore Red states was 84. Today's base is nearly unchanged, 155-96. Hillary has locked down Maine's splittable vote (ME01), and Trump can now count on Utah and Mississippi.

Below the surface, you'll see that Clinton's collapse is as almost as deep as it is broad.