This site still thinks we’ll see 3.5-4.0% GDP growth this year.
But faltering consumer confidence, dropping home sales, and financial markets moving sideways at best, all make me a bit less confident.
The good news is, the Dow may be experience a stealth bull market, the reverse of the stealth bear market of 1998-2000. And increased government orders (ie, the deficit) might increase aggregate demand enough to make my prediction hold true.
Simply defined, a stealth bull market is when a large number of smaller companies are trading higher, but the overall market looks the same or worse, because a smaller number of larger companies are trading lower.