Stephen (no relation) Robinson at the Telegraph UK thinks a South Asia small war is all but certain. I’m still betting five to one against a major war — but those odds shift to three in seven — almost even — if shooting really starts.
Artillery duels don’t count. When men on the ground are taking and losing land, and taking and inflicting casualties, that’s when the risk of a major war becomes real.
And the risk of nuclear becomes serious if India advances into Pakistan proper, and not just Kashmir.