Don't Lose Sleep Yet

Stephen (no relation) Robinson at the Telegraph UK thinks a South Asia small war is all but certain. I’m still betting five to one against a major war — but those odds shift to three in seven — almost even — if shooting really starts.


Artillery duels don’t count. When men on the ground are taking and losing land, and taking and inflicting casualties, that’s when the risk of a major war becomes real.

And the risk of nuclear becomes serious if India advances into Pakistan proper, and not just Kashmir.


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