We’ll skip the normal column format: War is kind of a big deal, you know. And since the ultimate success of this war will be determined, in large part, by the Iranian people, this war relies on PR more than most.
After all, we’re not invading Iran with land troops — because we’re hoping the land troops are already there.
I’m speaking, of course, of the Iranian civilians. Despite being blessed with enough oil to choke Russia, 75% of Iranians live below the poverty line. They’ve been under the thumb of the mullahs for almost 50 years — whose stormtroopers slaughtered over 30,000 civilians just a few months ago.
And now we’re inviting ‘em to the party:
PRESIDENT TRUMP’s message to the great people of Iran:
— Department of State (@StateDept) February 28, 2026
When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. America is backing you with overwhelming strength. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and unleash the prosperous and glorious future… pic.twitter.com/BgxDMgzhmv
Key lines:
When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be, probably, your only chance for generations.
[…]
Now is the time to seize control of your destiny, and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.
How this will play in Iran is unknown. (Either way, we’ll soon find out.)
But within the United States, the PR fallout of the Iran War is far easier to predict (or PRedict): If we win, the American people will approve; if it’s ANYTHING other than a win, there’ll be various degrees of blowback.
This is a purely outcome-based military mission: If Iran is flipped from an enemy into an ally — and American casualties are minimal — then this was a masterstroke in realpolitik.
If so, Trump will be hailed as a visionary…
…which will eke him a few days of positive press, and then be mostly forgotten about by the midterms.
It’s a shame: Despite representing a seismic shift in geopolitics, the U.S. political benefit will be minimal. It’s highly unlikely that Maduro, the Ayatollah, or the collapse of Cuba will matter more in the November midterms than inflation, affordability, domestic issues, and the strength of the economy.
This was one of those gambles where the political downside was FAR greater than the political upside.
Of course, success in Iran will win Trump the love and support of Iranian Americans. We’re already seeing them march in the streets, weeping tears of joy — and thanking President Trump. Right now, they vote heavily Democratic: 52% are Democrats and only 8% Republicans (with 40% independent).
But there just aren’t a lot of ‘em. The Iranian American population is estimated at a little above half a million to maybe 2-ish million. (And about half live in California, which mutes their national reach.) Unless this flips the larger population of Arab Americans (3.7 million), that’s not enough voters to budge the needle.
Even if this war is a smashing success, by Nov. 2026, it’ll probably matter as much as President George H. W. Bush’s Gulf War victory did in 1992.
The Dems would have to retire their “TACO” taunt (for a few weeks, at least), but that’s about it. They’re on record opposing the Iran War, but they’ll pay a minimal PR price for their stance. It’s Maduro redux: Since this isn’t a huge deal to the American people, the Dems will side with their base.
From Joe Six Pack’s perspective, solving the Iranian problem is very nice, but that wasn’t his #1 priority. It’s not what animated him to vote in 2024, and it’s not what’ll drive him to the polls in 2026.
The midterms will still be about the economy. Period.
Now, if Iran’s new government does something that rewards the American taxpayers — cheap oil, military contracts, whatever — the Iran story and the economic story could fuse together. That’s the best-case PR scenario for the GOP: The victory in Iran becomes part of the overall “winning” narrative.
It’s the evidence that proves the theory.
Okay, but what if the Iran War is less than a smashing success? For example, what if we bash and batter Iran for a few weeks, but the mullahs manage to hold on and the regime survives?
Trump would still be able to claim victory: By definition, this was already regime change, because the “supreme leader” — who’d been in power since 1989 — was blown into bits.
Plus, Iran’s military will certainly be weakened. Too many craters over too many military bases already — and we’re just getting started. That alone fulfills the America First precept of advancing our national interests by weakening our enemies.
But that’s not how it’ll be spun.
See, it’s kind of like the Avengers, but for dumbass Republicans: Have you noticed that MAGA’s stupidest members are the ones most opposed to bombing Iran? Those super-geniuses, like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Nick Fuentes, Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, Andrew Tate, and Thomas Massie, have all united against the president.
They have a microphone, too — and the mainstream media will gleefully amplify all their criticisms.
And we already know what their criticisms will be: AIPAC controls congress, Israel controls America, disloyal Jewish “neocons” control the White House, and this whole damn war was yet another example of the American government putting Israel First.
(Or maybe it was a distraction from the Epstein files, which something-something Israel-Mossad-Jews, too. Those nitwits love a conspiracy.)
If this happens, the PR fallout will be a fractured MAGA movement, with the 20% isolationist wing separating from the rest. And, with depressed GOP turnout, the 2026 midterms will produce a big Blue Wave that gives the Dems full control of the House by 30+ seats — and probably the Senate.
Losing 1 in 5 of our base in the midterms would be impossible to overcome, and there just aren’t enough Iranian Americans to offset the depressed numbers.
Third possibility: What if the war is a horrible mistake and ends in complete and total disaster?
Well, the supreme leader (who’s a lot like a regular leader, only with sour cream) is already dead, so that won’t happen. Plus, our Armed Forces are too frickin’ good to roll snake eyes. The part of this war we control directly — the number of bombs and missiles, and where they go — means we’ll 100% fulfill our objective of regime change at the top, plus degrading of Iranian’s military industrial complex.
So we’ve already passed that threshold.
But what if Iran captures a downed U.S. pilot and parades him on TV?
What if, during the Biden years, Iran ordered sleeper cells to cross into our border, and they’re waiting for the green light to unleash a wave of terrorist attacks on U.S. cities?
That’s when things get dicey. And the ultimate PR fallout, I’m afraid, will depend on the gruesome specifics.
Sadly, we can’t predict what’s unpredictable — which is still the greatest danger of all.
