Wait a Minute: Trump’s Hispanic Approval SURGES? Is MAGA Actually WINNING on Immigration?

Everything you see, read, and hear in the media is a means to an end — and nothing more. (Keep that in mind, because it’s the only way to make sense of the headlines.)

So, forget about the truth. Forget about right and wrong! Winning elections in the 2020s is all about leveraging the news to activate votes. That’s how the PR game is played.

And you don’t do that via faithful fidelity to reality.

Instead, you cherry-pick news items to advance your party’s political objectives. Which is why everything you read in the media is a Frankenstein’s monster of reassembled body parts, carefully reconstructed to create whatever illusion furthers a very specific agenda.

Including the ICE fatalities of Renee Good and Alex Pretti.

You’ve already heard the commentators: The public hates ICE! America is furious! Trump’s poll numbers are crashing!

ICE, DHS & Kristi Noem are a political disaster for Trump.

ICE's net approval is at an all-time low under Trump (-27 pt) & keeps falling.

DHS approval is at an all-time low under Trump (42%... was 59% at this pt in term 1).

Noem's net approval has been negative in every poll. pic.twitter.com/sFc4QnQSEc
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) January 26, 2026

CNN’s reporting echoed Newsweek’s: Donald Trump’s Disapproval Rating Hits Record High

Strengths in Numbers also said that only 27 percent of political independents approved of Trump’s job performance, while 63 percent disapproved.
Additionally, Strength In Numbers said that the president’s approval on immigration, his deportation policy, and border security had all declined since its last poll in October 2025.

Ouch! That ain’t good!

Other polls reported similar results, including one from this morning’s USA Today: President Trump’s Immigration Approval Drops to New Low, Poll Finds

American approval of President Donald Trump's immigration policy dropped to its lowest level since his return to the White House, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found, amid growing backlash after federal immigration agents fatally shot two people in Minneapolis this month.
The poll, conducted nationwide Jan. 23 through Jan. 25, gathered responses before and after immigration officers on Jan. 24 killed a second U.S. citizen in Minneapolis during confrontations with protesters over Trump's deployment of immigration agents to cities across the United States. 53% of Americans polled disapprove of the president's immigration policy, while 39% approve of the job Trump is doing on immigration, down from 41% in the prior Reuters/Ipsos poll this month.
[…]
The survey also found that about 58% of Americans polled said Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents have gone "too far" in their operations, while 12% said ICE had not gone far enough, and 26% said the agents' efforts were just "about right." About nine in 10 Democrats said the agents have gone too far, compared to two in 10 Republicans and six in 10 independents.

And these results could be catastrophic, because winning elections in the 2020s depends on two key metrics: Your base, plus persuadable independence.

If you can mobilize over 95% of your base, plus a majority of persuadable independents, you’ll almost always prevail in Nov. But if you can’t drive your base to the voting booths — and/or can’t persuade independents — you don’t have a prayer of winning anymore.

But something strange is going on, despite these dreadful polls: Trump’s overall approval rating hasn’t really budged — and his numbers with Hispanic voters are… dramatically increasing!

The USA Today article placed Trump’s approval rating at 38%; it was 41% a few weeks earlier, with a margin of error of exactly 3%. Meanwhile, according to the Newsweek article, Trump’s approval rating was at 40%.

So basically, zero change!

That was noted by Andrew Wroe, senior lecturer of American politics at the University of Kent (U.K.), who told Newsweek:

"[Trump's] poll ratings haven't collapsed. Yes, there has been some decline since he took office again on 20 January 2025, but that's normal for modern presidents as the inaugural boost diminishes and the vagaries of governing come to the fore.
Indeed, what's perhaps more notable is how steady his numbers are, hovering in the low 40's for several months now. That's because nearly all Republicans approve of his performance while nearly all Democrats disapprove. The loyalty of his MAGA supporters, while not unconditional, should prevent a dramatic decline in the polls. And the baked-in hostility of all those who don't identify as Republicans will, conversely, prevent any dramatic increase in his numbers. [emphasis added]

Wroe is exactly right — and as the midterms approach, it’s likely that many of the wayward Republicans will return home anyway, because that’s usually when political faultlines intensify. (Even if some conservatives sympathize with Good and Pretti, or disagree with raiding Home Depot to deport illegals, it’s difficult to imagine them embracing an “Abolish ICE” platform.)

Which is why there is absolutely no evidence of an “electoral collapse” for Donald Trump, the Republican Party, or the MAGA movement!

Let’s return to our electoral model: We need 95+% of our base (check), along with persuadable independents. And in today’s politics, Hispanics are the ultimate swing-voters.

As the BBC reported, “Hispanic voters sent Trump back to power.” And in Axios’ post-election analysis (which noted Trump took 48% of the Hispanic vote in 2024):

By the numbers: Trump's showing among Latinos was the best performance by a GOP presidential candidate in modern times, according to an Axios review of past elections dating back to 1960.
Joe Biden took 61% of the Latino vote compared to Trump's 36% in 2020, a 25-point advantage.
Hillary Clinton received 66% of the Latino vote to Trump's 28%, a 38-point advantage.
What they're saying: "This is no longer a wake-up call" for Democrats. "This is a damn get-your-act-together call," said Sisto Abeyta, a New Mexico-based Democratic political consultant of the Nevada-based firm TriStrategies.
Abeyta said Democrats have been bleeding support from Hispanic men for some time by focusing on abortion and environmental issues instead of the economy.

If any group would be hypersensitive to the media spectacle of ICE agents dragging illegal aliens of Mexican, Central American, and South American origins out the country, you’d assume it would be American Hispanics.

And if the GOP loses Hispanics, we’re in trouble, because they’ve gone from 5% of the population in 1970 to 13% in 2000 — and now represent 20% of Americans.

There are now more Hispanics (68 million) than all the blacks (40 million) and Asians (21 million) combined. They’re far and away the most important non-white voting group — and the most sought-after swing vote.

Which is why this Newsweek story from a couple of days ago is so telling:

Newsweek: Donald Trump’s Approval Surges by Double-Digits With Hispanic Voters

The Emerson College poll released on Friday found that 43.3 percent of Hispanic or Latino voters approve of Trump, compared to 45.4 percent who disapprove of his job performance around one year into his second term in office.
In December, 57.9 percent of Hispanic and Latino voters disapproved of Trump’s job performance, while just 28.2 percent gave him positive marks at the time.

That means, despite all the high-profile ICE raids this month, Trump’s approval rating with Hispanics skyrocketed by over 15 points — and his disapproval rating dropped by 12.5 points!

Also of interest, this poll has Trump’s overall approval rating at 43% (roughly in-line with all the other polls, with its 3% margin of error). So, Trump’s approval rating with Hispanic voters is actually a smidgen higher than his approval rating with the general public!

If you’re wondering how the heck this happened, here are three possibilities:

The poll is simply wrong. (Can’t rule that out; pollsters make plenty of mistakes.) But the fact that all its other numbers eerily parallel most of the aforementioned polls lends it credibility.
Trump is overperforming on non-ICE issues that Hispanics care much more about. (Spencer Kimball, the poll’s executive director, said: “Venezuela is the Trump administration’s top issue in the survey among Hispanic voters, who approve of the administration’s actions 44% to 37%...”)
Hispanics aren’t the ones who are freaking out over the ICE raids. Instead, the ones freaking out are angry white liberals who’d never vote for Trump anyway!

My personal take is #2 and #3 are most likely correct: Angry white liberals care FAR more about open borders and protecting illegals than the Hispanic community, who’ve been disproportionately hurt by migrant crimes. Like other ethnic groups, Hispanics are far more likely to be victimized by their own race: In 40.3% of violent crimes against Hispanics, the perpetrator was also Hispanic.

Venezuela matters to Hispanics. The economy matters to Hispanics. Peace and prosperity matter to Hispanics. “Making America Great Again” and claiming a piece of the American Dream matter to Hispanics.

Wrestling with ICE officers to protect illegal aliens matters to angry white liberals.

(Plus, there’s also the possibility that Trump’s “machismo” while standing up to the loony left appealed to Hispanic men. It very well could be that Trump’s ICE policy — which is so hated and despised by leftists — is far more popular than we think with mainstream Hispanics, who yearn to be a part of America’s fabric.)

It changes the complexion of the ICE debate, doesn’t it? Perhaps liberals' opposition is less due to their anger over “masked agents,” “Gestapo-like tactics,” and aggressive policing. Perhaps that’s not it at all.

Perhaps the real reason they object is because Trump’s policy is working.

One Last Thing: 2026 is a critical year for America First. It began with Mayor Mamdani declaring war on “rugged individualism” and will reach a crescendo with the midterm elections. Nothing less than the fate of the America First movement teeters in the balance.

Never before have the political battle lines been so clearly defined. Win or lose, 2026 will transform our country.

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