There’s a tactical upside to constantly shaking up the status quo: Every now and then, the pieces resettle in highly advantageous ways.
What was once an unworkable, immovable, political dead-end can metamorphose into an opportunity-rich playground full of possibilities. It’s an underrated tactic for politicians to consider: When the status quo won’t get you where you wanna be, shake up the status quo!
Especially when you’re quicker, faster, and more agile than your opponents.
But let’s get the bad news out of the way: The second ICE fatality will hurt President Donald Trump in the polls, embolden the Democrats, and will almost certainly lead to more dead Americans. At this point, it’s already baked into the cake.
It’s now the GOP’s job to mitigate the consequences.
You might believe that it shouldn’t hurt Trump — that you’ve studied the video footage and listened to the news, and it’s clear that Alex Pretti and Renee Good were illegally interfering with federal immigration enforcement. In fact, you might also be convinced that none of this would’ve happened if prominent Democrats hadn’t encouraged protesters to violate the law and endanger lives.
Fine. I’m not here to argue with you.
All I’ll say is this: If you spoke for the rest of the American people, the Republican Party wouldn’t need PR, because we’d already have a permanent majority. Unfortunately, PR matters more than ever today, because the number of independents is steadily growing.
Both parties need their bases over 95% mobilized — plus a majority of persuadable independents — in order to win national elections. That’s the secret sauce for electoral victory in the 2020s.
So here we are. Once again, the status quo was flipped on its ear. Once again, the Republican and Democratic parties are scrambling to make sense of the New(er) World Order. And whattaya know, as fate would have it, the Republicans and Democrats will be forced to negotiate this week, because another government shutdown on Jan. 30 looms.
Which means, there’s an opportunity for President Trump to seal a deal and get what he wants before the Dems even know what hit ‘em!
That’s because Sen. Schumer (D-N.Y.)’s wish-list and the GOP wish-list are very different. Conceivably, we could give the Dems what they want — just as long as we get what we want.
Let’s begin with the Dems: More than anything else, Sen. Schumer covets:
- Getting ICE out of blue states ASAP.
- Scoring a big political win so that his base gets off his back.
- Justifying his status as Minority Leader (and/or not looking like such an impotent yutz).
For numbers two and three, Trump should try to give him what he wants: Schumer ain’t exactly the Lee Atwater of left-wing politics. He’s bland, banal, and boring. (Hey, having an over-the-hill, broken-down donkey as the Democrats’ public face is perfectly fine with me.)
And number three — sending waves of masked ICE agents into hostile Democratic cities — is probably going to be too politically costly. The early returns are eye-opening.
Here’s a (very) early opinion poll:
After federal immigration agents on Saturday shot and killed a Minneapolis resident for the second time this month, more Americans now say they would support abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) than say they would oppose eliminating the agency. A majority of Americans say ICE's tactics are too forceful and about half say they strongly disapprove of the way the agency is handling its job, according to a YouGov Poll conducted hours after the shooting. More Americans approve than disapprove of protests against ICE.
[…]
Another poll conducted the day after the shooting found that about half of Americans say the shooting Saturday of Alex Pretti was not justified, while only 20% said it was justified. The gap is even larger among Americans who have seen video of the shooting, nearly two-thirds of whom say it was not justified.
[…]
A majority (57%) of Americans somewhat or strongly disapprove of the way ICE is handling its job. Only 37% approve. Among Americans who have strong opinions about ICE, the divide is even starker. About half (48%) of Americans strongly disapprove, twice as many as the share who strongly approve: about one-quarter (23%).
Majorities of Democrats (83%) and Independents (54%) strongly disapprove of the way ICE is handling its job. In contrast, about half (51%) of Republicans strongly approve of ICE's job handling and only 7% strongly disapprove.
Now, it’s possible that those numbers will bounce back. (Often, opinions change after ideas “marinate” over time.) If Trump chooses, he could battle tooth-and-nail to reverse the bleeding and try to win the PR fight.
But it’s also possible that those numbers will get even worse, because the Democratic Party, the mainstream media, and American pop culture will be working overtime to vilify ICE and canonize Alex Pretti and Renee Good as sainted martyrs.
Which is why it’s probably more likely the numbers will head south than north: The emotional intensity is squarely on the Democrats’ side.
If it does head south, fighting the good fight will consume whatever remains of Trump’s political capital, further mobilize the anti-Trump vote, and — when the PR blowback is too great, and he’s forced to withdraw anyway — lead to a humiliating, costly defeat.
The Democratic leadership will never admit it ‘cause their base would absolutely lynch ‘em, but in their heart of hearts, they want these ICE raids to continue through the midterms, because they think it’s a winning issue!
Remarkably, Trump could claim his greatest victory by giving Schumer everything on his wish-list — including a negotiated pause on ICE raids.
And because Schumer’s base is so triggered, he probably couldn’t afford to say no.
President Trump’s greatest accomplishment was completely closing the southern border. (The fact that it took less than a year only adds to the victory.) He should leverage the Dems’ hatred of ICE to ensure that our borders stay secure forever and ever.
Because if he doesn’t, the next time a Democrat wins the White House, all of Trump’s border work won’t just be dismantled; it’ll also be reversed, because the donkey’s base has been whipped into a crazed, anti-ICE fervor.
The pendulum will be swinging back with a vengeance!
This means the 2028 Democratic Party platform will 100% call for the abolition of ICE and the elimination of all border enforcement. This will also be endorsed and espoused by the presidential nominee, because pro-ICE Democrats will be persona non grata within the party.
Therefore, Trump must prioritize making border security permanent.
The solution, I think, is to tie the suspension of masked ICE agents in bright blue cities to our current illegal immigration rate. (Which is pretty close to zero, proving that the government could’ve closed the border whenever it wanted.) Trump should try to negotiate a 10-year agreement: ICE won’t continue raiding “sanctuary cities” against the wishes of the states’ governors if our current illegal immigration rate holds.
(And then, if we overachieve in the ’26 midterms, the GOP could close that loophole in a jiffy by banning sanctuary cities — but we don’t need to tell Schumer that. Shh: It’ll be our little secret!)
It’ll put the Schumer in a vexing vise: Either he’s the hero who successfully takes ICE off the streets, or he lets ICE continue murdering, pillaging, kidnapping (yada yada) — because his party wasn’t serious about closing the border in the first place.
All at once, the debate parameters will return to a more defensible, pro-Trump terrain. And once again, the status quo will be flipped on its ear.
Best of all, it transforms Trump’s ICE policy from a political liability into a bargaining chip that guarantees an America First future for our country.
Bottom line?
Every political option has risks and rewards — benefits and liabilities. The way I see it, this strategy has the biggest upside, the smallest downside, and the highest probability of actually working.
It’s probably worth considering.
One Last Thing: 2026 is a critical year for America First: It began with Mayor Mamdani declaring war on “rugged individualism” and will reach a crescendo with the midterm elections. Nothing less than the fate of the America First movement teeters in the balance.
Never before have the political battlelines been so clearly defined. Win or lose, 2026 will transform our country.
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