Different polls use different methodologies with (wildly) different benchmarks, so it’s usually smarter to focus less on the specific numbers and more on the trajectories: Which way are the numbers moving?
According to the last two national polls, President Donald Trump — and by extension, the Republican Party — are on the upswing.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll, which concluded on Jan. 5, gave Trump his highest approval rating since October. The InsiderAdvantage poll from Dec. 20 gave Trump his highest approval rating since August.
Intriguingly, both polls came on the heels of newsworthy events: The InsiderAdvantage poll was after Trump’s national TV address on the economy, and Reuters/Ipsos directly followed the stunningly successful U.S. military operation in Venezuela.
That implies a causal relationship, because we tend to be influenced by the last thing we saw or heard. Recency bias is a very powerful PR tool.
And what’s so intriguing is that Trump’s numbers are steadily rising, even though there’s still no clear national consensus.
In the survey, Americans are sharply divided on what they think about the U.S. military action to remove Maduro: 34 percent disapprove, 33 percent approve and 33 percent say they don’t know or skipped the question.
Among Republicans, 65 percent approve and 6 percent disapprove; among Democrats, 65 percent disapprove and 11 percent approve; and among independents or “other” voters, 42 percent say they don’t know, 35 percent disapprove and 23 percent approve of the action.
So why are Trump’s numbers going up?
Even amongst the MAGA coalition, there’s been a hodgepodge of opinions. The isolationist wing is displeased, of course (with many of its wackier members blaming — who else? — the Jews). They have no stomach for nation-building.
But the rest of the MAGAverse is already on board. They recognize the strategic value in toppling an anti-American, pro-Chinese regime that’s funneling drugs, crime, and mayhem into U.S. cities. And as for the left-wing lament that “All we care about is their oil,” the Trumpist answer is “No [feces], Sherlock.”
What, you REALLY thought China was spending over $100 billion in Venezuela because they’re super-fans of Venezuelan cuisine? Or love the local culture?
Of course it’s about their oil! And of course it’s about Venezuela’s proximity to the United States!
Still, the trouble with coups is that they’re easy to start but harder to manage long-term. The opening chapter of the Venezuela story was a smashing success, but it’s the middle chapters that’ll determine the narrative.
Which is why, in all probability, the safest political path would’ve been to seize Maduro and promptly hand control of Venezuela to a pro-American ally. (Trump said Maria Corina Machado “doesn’t have the respect” to run the country, but methinks she’d have all the respect she’d need if U.S. warships had her back.)
If Venezuela devolves into Iraq, Part II: The Electric Boogaloo, the American people will turn on Trump, the GOP, and the MAGA movement. That’s the reality of it.
For better or worse, it’s our baby now.
And that’s a real vulnerability — and not only because the mainstream media will pull a page from its Iraqi playbook and drum-up anti-American news stories at every turn. (That’s already baked into the political pie.) Instead, the larger vulnerability is if MAGA-aligned influencers split the movement, because MAGA needs all hands-on-deck to survive the midterms.
Otherwise, we’ll drown in a big blue wave.
But unfortunately, that’s going to be part of the PR fallout, because today’s top influencers aren’t conservative thought-leaders, à la William F. Buckley or Rush Limbaugh, but political shock-jocks who get clicks and attention by saying shockingly stupid things.
Like, for instance, claiming that the puppeteers of the Venezuelan invasion were (checks notes) the “globo homos”:
Tucker Carlson believes it’s a “distinct possibility” that the U.S. captured Maduro to *checks notes* “bring gay marriage to Venezuela.”
— Nathan Livingstone (MilkBarTV) (@TheMilkBarTV) January 5, 2026
Yes, he’s serious. pic.twitter.com/TmrrwWYgTH
The Trump administration will need a PR plan to defend itself not just from the left, but from the shock-jock on the right. Sowing division, contrarianism, and controversy is what drives Carlson’s profit model. So get ready, ‘cause it’s 100% coming.
If the MAGAverse lets the Venezuela narrative spiral out of control, it’ll become the Epstein Files redux.
There’s also concern that China could use Venezuela as a PR pretext to invade Taiwan, especially if a Chinese court “manufactures” a criminal case against Taiwan’s leadership. Anything’s possible, but the more likely PR outcome is that China will be more fearful and tentative.
Nine times out of ten, despite all the realpolitik handwringing, a strong, capable America deters foreign aggression; a weak, timid America emboldens it.
(And besides, after the U.S. military made utter mincemeat out of Russian/Chinese air defense systems and hardware, I’ll betcha Russian/Chinese arms dealers were fielding quite a few phone calls from concerned dictators.)
That’s one of the tactical benefits of an unpredictable president: Countries like China are going to be far less likely to meddle in our backyard because their assets could get seized at any moment — and there’s not a damn thing they can do about it.
But the greatest PR benefit is yet to come, assuming the White House manages Venezuela wisely: Donald Trump’s brand will change forever, just in time for the 2026 midterms.
Pre-Venezuela, Trump was considered many things: a fighter, a counterpuncher, a leader, a maverick, a disruptor, a vulgarian, a populist, a billionaire, an egoist.
Post-Venezuela, Trump could add to his brand a word that’s eluded past presidents, including George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden.
The word is “competent.”
When the American people complain about the so-called “affordability crisis,” what they’re really saying is that they want someone competent to run the economy. Too many times in recent memory — from the botched Iraqi occupation to Katrina to Benghazi to ISIS to COVID to inflation to the Biden border invasion to the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan — we’ve shaken our heads in dismay over the incompetency of our government.
At this point, the American people want someone who knows what the hell they’re doing!
That’s not always been Trump’s bread and butter. (Anyone remember Signalgate?) Traditionally, most of Trump’s wounds are self-inflicted.
But if Venezuela prospers, the American economy grows, and America’s enemies shrink, recency bias will push all that aside. Donald Trump will be heralded as “the competency president” — and the GOP as the grownups in the room.
(Which’ll sharply contrast with the chaos and immaturity of someone like Mayor Zohran Mamdani in New York City.)
Competency is exceedingly rare in politics. It’s the reason why Trump’s numbers are on the upswing.
Exclusively for our VIPs: PRedictions, PRojections, PRaise, and PRedators: Tattoos, Maduro, China, and 'Qatar First' Influencers
For the very first time, President Trump and the GOP have a legitimate path to winning the midterms. It won’t be easy — historic headwinds still abound — but the 2026 litmus test will be based on real-world outcomes, not knee-jerk ideology, political posturing, or “sending a message.”
The goalposts have moved: Whoever is seen as most competent will likely prevail.
And that’s the biggest PR fallout of all.
One Last Thing: 2026 is a critical year for America First: It began with Mayor Zohran Mamdani declaring war on “rugged individualism” and will reach a crescendo with the midterm elections. Nothing less than the fate of the America First movement teeters in the balance.
Never before have the political battlelines been so clearly defined. Win or lose, 2026 will transform our country.
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