Folks, this is nothing short of amazing. For the last year leading up to the presidential elections in Brazil, the little socialist dictator Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been leading the polls, and while that lead has tightened in recent months, it still showed that Lula would likely get more votes than his closest competitor, Flávio Bolsonaro.
Well, the polls were wrong. As I write this around 8 p.m. Eastern Time on Sunday night, 99% of the reporting is in, and Flávio came out on top, with 47.24% compared to Lula's 44.91%.
It's close, but it's a far better outcome than anyone predicted. Early in the night, it looked as if Flávio could win the election outright. He had something like 51% of the vote, and a candidate needs 50% to win without a runoff, but the more conservative states reported faster, and that number came down a bit. So the race will, indeed, lead to a runoff on October 25, but it's looking very likely that Flávio will win, and Brazil will turn to the right, just as numerous other Central and South American countries have done over the last few years.
That would be huge for any number of reasons. Donald Trump and Marco Rubio will have a new ally in the region — one that will likely join the Shield of the Americas and help fight the cartels and other criminal groups that plague the Americas. It will also be a huge economic win — Brazil has the largest economy in Latin America. Best of all, it will isolate the few remaining socialists in the region, such as Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum. And the pressure on Cuba and Nicaragua will also likely grow.
Of course, anything could happen over the next few weeks, but the excitement in the conservative world is palpable. Here's Argentine president Javier Milei celebrating on Sunday night with the caption (translated from Spanish): "FREEDOM ADVANCES IN BRAZIL. Congratulations, dear friend @FlavioBolsonaro, on this historic election against the communist Lula. The American continent belongs to citizens who want to live in freedom. I hope that soon we can start working together so that Argentina and Brazil continue to be great trading, cultural, and political partners. The opportunities for our nations, working together, are infinite. LONG LIVE FREEDOM, DAMN IT...!!"
LA LIBERTAD AVANZA EN BRASIL Felicitaciones querido amigo @FlavioBolsonaro, por esta histórica elección ante el comunista de Lula. El continente americano es de ciudadanos que quieren vivir en libertad. Espero que pronto podamos empezar a trabajar juntos para que la Argentina y Brasil sigan siendo grandes socios comerciales, culturales y políticos. Las oportunidades para nuestras naciones, trabajando juntos, son infinitas. VIVA LA LIBERTAD CARAJO...!!
— Javier Milei (@JMilei) October 5, 2026
Neither Trump nor Rubio have spoken out yet, but several Republican members of Congress have praised this great news, including Rep. Carlos A. Gimenez (R-Fla.) and Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio). I'm sure there will be much more to come on Monday.
Freedom is coming to #Brazil! 🇺🇸🤝🇧🇷 Lula’s corrupt socialist nightmare will soon be over!
— Rep. Carlos A. Gimenez (@RepCarlos) October 4, 2026
The Brazilian people just sent a clear message. @FlavioBolsonaro is leading Lula by a significant margin as the final votes come in. Brazilians are done with the socialist model that brought government control, crime, corruption, and distance from the United States. They are choosing freedom, safety, security, and a real partnership with America. This is bigger than one election. From Chile to Colombia to Brazil, Latin America is turning the page. The days of the socialist insurgents in the Western Hemisphere are coming to an end. A safer and more prosperous hemisphere that works with the United States, not against us, is within reach. God bless the people of Brazil. See you soon!
— Bernie Moreno (@berniemoreno) October 4, 2026
What happened beyond the presidential race is also a good indication that things may go our way.
As I mentioned earlier on Sunday, Brazil was also choosing all 27 governors, the entire 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, 54 of 81 Senate seats, and state legislatures. In the three states that typically decide Brazilian elections, Lula’s side lost.
São Paulo, the biggest state, reelected Tarcísio de Freitas, former President Jair Bolsonaro’s former infrastructure minister, for governor with about 63% of the vote. Minas Gerais, the second biggest, elected Cleitinho Azevedo, a Bolsonaro ally, with about 55% of the vote. Sérgio Moro, the judge who once sent Lula to prison, won Paraná on Bolsonaro’s party line, and a former army officer allied with Bolsonaro won Rio Grande do Sul with about 58%. Santa Catarina reelected its Bolsonaro-party governor with about 68%.
Jair Bolsonaro's wife, former first lady Michelle, won a Senate seat in the capital, Brasília. It was her first run for office, and some are saying she won more votes than any other person who filled that seat in history. Two more of Jair's sons, plus his brother, also won various elections. It also looks like the Liberal Party, which is the party under which Flávio ran, will have the largest bloc in the Senate.
It truly looks as if we're about to see another Latin American country reject socialism. This is historic.
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