Welcome to "The New Monroe Doctrine," where I give you an update on what's going on in the Western Hemisphere, south of our border, especially as it relates to the United States.
This week's topic? Dictators, dictators-lite, and falsely accused dictators. Let's just dive right in.
Dictator-Lite Down... Down In the Polls
Western Hemisphere dictators and commies are falling like dominoes this year, and we may not even need Delta Force to make it all happen.
First, there was Nicolás Maduro, of course. The Cuban regime is looking more and more likely to be next. We've seen countries like Chile and Honduras force their own lefty leaders out of office at the voting booths. And while there are still plenty of bad leaders around, the three biggest problems are Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, Gustavo Petro of Colombia, and Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico.
Colombia faces new elections in about two months, and the odds of another commie taking Petro's place are slim. We knew that. We're stuck with Sheinbaum until 2030, unless something crazy happens. And I was beginning to think we were stuck with Lula, who, let's face it, is the biggest pro-China/Russia, anti-United States cancer in the hemisphere. When I first started writing about the Brazilian elections last fall, he was ahead in the polls. Outlook not so good.
But that's changing.
🇧🇷 Brazilians are done with Lula.
— María Elvira Salazar 🇺🇸 (@MaElviraSalazar) March 26, 2026
He has stood with Latin America’s dictators, defended criminals, and now governs with the same playbook, silencing voices, shutting down platforms, and targeting his opponents.
He calls it “defending democracy.” The people of Brazil know the…
Lula's disapproval ratings are growing. Depending on which poll you look at, they range from 53% to 61%. The entire Brazilian government actually has a very low approval rating — something like 37%.
Lula's standing for the October presidential elections is also slipping. In Brazil, to win outright, a candidate must reach 50% of the vote. Because the field is so split, that's highly unlikely, so there would be a run-off between the two leading candidates — Lula and whomever the right-winger is. Right now, that's looking increasingly like Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former president, Jair Bolsonaro and chosen heir to Jair's own legacy and legion of supporters.
According to a poll out this week that was conducted by AtlasIntel/Bloomberg, if Bolsonaro the younger and Lula end up in a run-off, there's a technical tie with Bolsonaro polling just one percentage point ahead. That's up from what it was just a month or so ago, which means the Bosolonaro brand is gaining momentum, while Lula is losing it. A few months ago, it looked like Lula would win with the 50+%. He even had a double digit lead at one point.
What could change? Well, first, there are a handful of governors who range from center-right to libertarian-ish, who could pull votes away from Bolsonaro and leave the right fragmented. There's also the fact that Lula is 80 years old and has now served three terms as Brazil's president. Incumbent fatigue may be creeping up on voters. And the same issues driving voters to vote for more conservative candidates in other South American countries — namely the economy and organized crime — could drive more Brazilian voters to do the same. Election shenanigans could also be an issue, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it.
There's also the Donald Trump factor. It's no secret that Trump is a friend of the elder Bolsonaro and has been critical of the way Lula's government has treated him. The United States in general has issued sanctions and been quite vocal about the way the right has been persecuted in Brazil, as well as the toll it has taken on free speech and democracy. Trump could very well endorse a candidate in the end. He's done it in other South and Central American elections in recent months.
So, why do we care? Ultimately, for the same reasons we care about the rest of the hemisphere, but Brazil's economy, geographic size, and the size of its population make it even more important. China has its grubby hands all over it — Lula is a big pro-China/Russia, anti-United States kind of guy. Brazil is also one of our top trade partners, so we definitely want someone in place who is easier to work with than the current dictator-lite.
A candidate like Flavio Bolsonaro would be far more cooperative on issues like security, narco-trafficking, and organized crime — entire parts of Brazil have been taken over by gangs and cartels and are allowed impunity by Lula's government. Imagine having Brazil at next year's Shield of the Americas meeting? And it would help with general regional stability. Brazil borders Venezuela, for example, and the recovery of that country is going to take a lot of support from our partners in the Americas.
I tend to ignore Brazil in my regular weekly Western Hemisphere coverage, and admittedly, part of that is because I did think we were stuck with another Lula term and there was no point — but I hope to write more about it and why it matters to us as the election nears.
Anyway, I'm over-simplifying the situation for the sake of my editor, Chris Queen, getting to "enjoy his Friday night," but the most important takeaway is that Brazil could follow the Latin American rightward swing this year. Let's hope and pray for an October surprise for our Brazilian neighbors.
Before I move on to another country, I also want to point out that that Jair Bolsonaro was discharged from the hospital on Friday. As I mentioned earlier this month, he was in an ICU in Brazil dealing with pneumonia and kidney problems and from the sound of it, he nearly died. Lula's government is allowing him a 90-day "humanitarian" house-arrest instead of returning to prison. Thank God for that.
Dictator Down... Down in New York City.
Maduro got to see the light of day this week, or at least he got to see the light of a New York City courtroom. Sadly, no cameras were allowed, but those who were inside said he looks like he's lost a great deal of weight. It sounds like the Metropolitan Detention Center isn't quite as glorious as Miraflores Palace.
To be honest, it was fairly uneventful. His lawyers are claiming the Venezuelan government should pay for his legal fees, while prosecutors are saying he should pay for them himself or get a public defender if he can't afford it. The judge didn't make a decision and didn't set a next court date. He did, however, make it clear that he would not be dismissing the case as the defense requested.
You can read more about that here: Maduro Appears in Court. Judge: 'I’m Not Going to Dismiss the Case.'
Speaking of Venezuelan dictators, the current one, or, at least, the woman who would be one if she wasn't under Trump's thumb, spoke via satellite to a group of business leaders from the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Latin America in Miami this week, where she tried to convince them that "her government" is creating favorable conditions for investments. It didn't go over too well, and at the end, when she was about to start a Q&A session, the connection was inexplicably cut. I guess Trump and Rubio aren't quite ready to turn Delcy Rodríguez loose in the wild.
#25Mar | La presidenta encargada de Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, participó de forma virtual en el foro económico FII Priority que se celebra en Miami, Florida (EE UU).
— El Diario (@eldiario) March 25, 2026
Durante su intervención, Rodríguez destacó el restablecimiento de los acuerdos comerciales entre PDVSA y Estados… pic.twitter.com/KdSj5KfXA7
In the meantime, the woman who should eventually replace these Venezuelan dictators, opposition leader María Corina Machado, was in Houston this week to speak at the global energy forum CERAWeek, and as she does everywhere she goes, she created quite a stir. It was far more impressive than anything MAGA Delcy had to offer. She advocated for privatizing Venezuela's oil sector, called for the Cuban regime to fall, and made it clear that Trump is handling things in Venezuela even better than you might think.
"The regime is wounded. Irremediably. And it is dismantling. In fact, following instructions from President Trump, they are dismantling their own repressive and corrupt structures," she said during an interview. "An extremely important step towards advancing the transition. But this transition is already underway."
She impressed a lot of important people in the U.S. and, more importantly, at home. Workers and students in Venezuela continue to protest, demanding jobs instead of welfare (something we're not use to here in the U.S.). Machado's Vente Venezuela party is growing in popularity, and for the first time in over a year, it will open its headquarter doors in Caracas on Saturday. Previously, it was terrorized and robbed by the Maduro regime. Here's the crowd that gathered in Houston to see Machado.
Esto es Houston.
— Orlando Avendaño (@OrlvndoA) March 25, 2026
Miles de venezolanos reciben a María Corina Machado en Texas, tras su participación en el importantísimo evento CERAWeek. pic.twitter.com/2Vu8bSBlxR
Falsely Accused Dictator Down... Down in El Salvador Doing Good Things
I'm going to keep this one super short, but since everyone likes to accuse El Salvador's Nayib Bukele of being a dictator — Petro called him "Hitler" in an interview just this week — I just wanted to share this video he posted on X. It's images of El Salvador before, when it was overrun by gang violence and corrupt politicians, and today, after Bukele has completely overhauled it. The difference is quite stark. I don't think dictators usually want nice things for their constituents.
"Block by block... it'll take a little while, but it'll turn out beautiful," the caption reads.
Cuadra por cuadra... tardará un poco, pero quedará hermoso. pic.twitter.com/uoiBfi7SqP
— Nayib Bukele (@nayibbukele) March 27, 2026
I actually have some more good news out of El Salvador, but I'm going to save that for a separate article that I'll put out in the next few days.
Dictators Down... Soon I Hope
I've written so much about Cuba lately that I dream about it almost every night, so I'm going to give Chris Queen another break from having to edit a lot and just link you to what I wrote this week. Nothing new has happened, but in case you missed it, the big story was that Code Pink and some other commies went down there and made a mockery of the people's suffering. Here's what you need to know:
- Code Pink’s Cuban Commie Vacation: Lights, Luxury, and Zero Shame
- It Gets Much Worse: Code Pink's Cuban Commie Vacation Hits a New Low
- Why Is Code Pink’s Commie Convoy Ignoring These Cuban Kids?
- Two Boats From Code Pink-Led Cuban Convoy Go Missing (I haven't updated the article, but the boats were found and everyone is safe and sound.)
- Rubio to Fake News: 'The Only Thing Worse Than a Communist Is an Incompetent Communist.' (Our secretary of State at his finest, going off on the fake news and the Cuban regime at the same time.)
And as I'm writing this, Trump is speaking in Miami and saying "Cuba is next," as he likes to do lately.
🇺🇸🇨🇺 | URGENTE — Donald Trump:
— Agustín Antonetti (@agusantonetti) March 27, 2026
"Por cierto, Cuba es la siguiente. Pero hagan como si no lo hubiera dicho. Cuba es la siguiente."
Tras más de 67 años, se viene el fin de la dictadura cubana, sí. Por las buenas o por las malas. pic.twitter.com/YUNo6sp0TO
Normally, I would do "a few other things" here, but I'm going to cut things short tonight because 1) I'm running late and 2) I actually took some time off this week and haven't had a chance to flesh out those "few other things" articles that I usually like to share. I actually took part of Tuesday off to work on my pool, made myself incredibly sore, and reinjured my shoulder so badly that I couldn't even type on Wednesday, but I am feeling much better now. Between that and the Commies heading down to Cuba taking up all my time, I just didn't get a lot of extra stuff written this week.
Wait, I do have another Ecuador story about the war against cartels if you're interested: FAFO Chronicles: Galapagos Islands Edition. And I have another "FAFO Chronicles" story about Argentina coming up, hopefully on Saturday.
I also have lots of other stories about our Latin American friends that I've started and am working on for this weekend and next week, so stay tuned for that. And, as always, feel free to email me if there's a specific topic you want to see more of. I'm always open to ideas.
Well, that's it for me. As I say, Rubio isn't handing me exclusives... yet, so that's all I've got. As I'm writing this, I think he's on a plane back from the G7 meeting in Paris, so I guess I'll excuse him this week. Jet lag and all that. We'll see what April brings.
Have a great weekend, y'all!
You won't find coverage like this of our neighbors in the Western Hemisphere anywhere else. For far too long, the United States and the media have largely avoided the Central and South America and the Caribbean, but Donald Trump and Marco Rubio are putting an end to that, and we're covering it every step of the way.
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