A new Gallup poll shows the effects of recent events at home and abroad as Republicans look to take advantage of the numerous stumbles made by Joe Biden and the Democrats.
The poll, conducted from September 1-17, has the Republicans scoring higher in promoting international security and domestic prosperity compared to the Democrats.
Independent voters are driving the GOP numbers upward–but, surprisingly, Democrats are losing support among their own as well.
Support for the Republican party among independents in these domains has expanded but not as broadly as their support for the Democrats has contracted. There has been an eight-point increase among independents who say the GOP is better prepared to keep America prosperous (from 43 percent to 51 percent) and a five-point increase in optimism for Republicans defending the nation (from 48 percent to 53 percent).
While 54 percent of respondents trust the GOP more to keep the nation safe from international threats, a 4-point increase from last year, only 39 percent believe the same of the Democratic Party, a seven-point drop from last year.
It’s very difficult to move the needle on anything in this era of political polarization, much less by 4 or 5 points.
The trend is even better in the economic sphere.
The GOP’s competitive advantage has improved along economic lines as well. While only 41 percent of Americans have faith in the Democratic party’s ability to sustain a robust economy, a seven-point decline from last year, the Republican Party now enjoys 50 percent approval on that metric, a three-point uptick from last year.
On prosperity, Republicans fell out of favor and lost their rating lead only in 2012 and 2020 when Democratic candidates were elected president but recovered the ground in the interim periods, roughly corresponding with midterm elections and Republican executives assuming office.
For instance, the current nine-point lead for Republicans for fostering a strong economy was only matched in 2011 and 2014, the latter of which was marked by a red sweep in the midterm elections.
As with all polls, the numbers are a snapshot of America at a certain point in time. Long-term trends are harder to discern from a couple of polls, but other polls also reflect the possibility of history repeating itself from 2010.
Joe Biden and the Democrats are in deep, deep trouble. It’s questionable whether, even if Biden is able to threaten and cajole enough Democrats to vote for his massive spending packages, it will save his party from massive defeat.
People like the idea of getting free stuff from the government but not at the expense of inflation eating away at their salaries or foreign threats on the horizon. Biden and the Democrats have badly miscalculated the mood of voters coming out of a pandemic and they will likely pay for that by losing their majority in 2022.