Election 2020

Does Trump Really Have a Shot at Taking the State of New York?

AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

Donald Trump believes — or says he believes — that the spike in violent crime, sky-high taxes, and the effects of the Democrats’ draconian lockdown give him a shot at winning one of his home states — New York.

New York Post:

“Over the last six months what’s happened is insane. It’s insane. So we’re going to try very hard to win New York and that will be the first time — is that since Ronald Reagan, I guess? Since Ronald Reagan,” Trump said.

“I will bring down taxes and I’ll make sure that New York City is a safe place. I mean, this is one of our cherished — this is a cherished diamond of this country. And we can’t let this happen to New York.”

New York is a deep-blue state that Donald Trump lost by 22 points in 2016. Is this enthusiasm just typical Trump bombast or does the president know something the pollsters and pundits don’t?

Frankly, it’s both. The most recent New York state poll from late June has Trump losing to Biden by 25 points. It’s probably close to that spread today. But what Trump knows that others don’t is that this is an unprecedented, confounding election with wildly unpredictable results. No one knows what voters are basing their decisions for president on. It’s probably quite unsettling for Biden and the Democrats as they are pressing all the buttons that history is telling them are winners — race, class warfare, and anti-Trump hysteria — and surprise! Trump refuses to go away.

Some in New York agree with the president that there are factors not being considered by the experts.

Fox News:

Malliotakis, who is running for Congress, believes Trump will have an “overwhelming” win in her Staten Island district, which he carried by 10 percentage points in 2016. The seat is currently held by Democrat Max Rose.

According to a map created by The New York Times showing polling results, Hillary Clinton won 59 percent of the vote statewide in 2016.

“President Trump and I are certainly on the same page when it comes to restoring law and order back to the streets of our city,” said Malliotakis, who called that “a winning message.”

Four years ago, no one was in the streets rioting and looting. And the violent crime rate didn’t spike 130 percent in June. And people weren’t being treated like misbehaving children being sent to bed without supper because they didn’t wear a mask on a golf course.

I can guarantee you that people aren’t blaming Trump for any of that. Not after Governor Andrew Cuomo turned nursing homes into death traps and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio allowed criminal gangs to take over the city.

“We are excited about all of that and bringing fresh vision to this city and state because people are extremely upset with the rise in crime, the rise in taxes,” she said. “They are really disgusted by the fact that our congressman marched with the ‘defund the police’ crowd in front of our local precinct, and this is happening all over the state.”

Malliotakis added: “In fact, the people that complained the most are the ones that voted against the president in 2016, and I think they’re going to be reconsidering this November.”

There is little doubt that Trump is bleeding some GOP support. But do the pollsters and pundits ever think of the support he’s gaining? If the two cancel each other out, Trump ends up with about the same level of support he had in 2016.

For those who missed it, he won that election.