If the 2024 election were held today, it wouldn’t even be close.
According to the latest Rasmussen Reports survey, in a hypothetical matchup between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, Trump now holds a double-digit lead.
“Forty-five percent (45%) of voters would choose Trump if the election were held today, while only 32% would vote to reelect Biden,” the survey found. “Seventeen percent (17%) say they’d vote for some other candidate.”
While many doubt that Biden will, in fact, seek reelection, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on Tuesday that Biden intends to run again.
Much of Biden’s weakness appears to come from those who supported him in 2020 who wouldn’t support him again. The survey found that 8 percent of 2020 Biden voters would switch to Trump in 2024. Only 69 percent of 2020 Biden voters say they’d support him again in 2024.
Confidence in Biden has taken such a massive hit that only 55 percent of Democrats even think it would be a good idea for him to run again. But Biden’s most significant problem appears to be with unaffiliated voters, of which only 20 percent think it would be a good idea for him to seek reelection. Conversely, nearly half of unaffiliated voters (48 percent) believe it would be a good idea for Trump to run again.
“If the next election were held today, Trump would get support from 50% of whites, 20% of black voters and 43% of other minorities,” says Rasmussen. “Biden would get the votes of 30% of whites, 47% of black voters and 32% of other minorities. Fifteen percent (15%) of whites, 22% of black voters and 21% of other minorities say they would vote for some other candidate.”
Trump’s support also eclipses Biden in all income groups, except those who make more than $100,000 annually.
Biden even appears to have lost support from young voters. Among voters under 40, only 34 percent would vote for Biden if the next election were held today, compared to 40 percent who support Trump.
This is a massive shift from just a year ago.
Joe Biden took office with a respectable approval rating but saw it gradually decline over the months because of inflation, the border crisis, and his failure to defeat COVID as promised—before plummeting in the wake of his botched withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Also for our VIPs: What Do Voters Say Now About Joe Biden’s Pandemic Response?
— Margolis & Cox Editorial Cartoons (@MargolisandCox) November 24, 2021
Biden’s decline in approval is truly historic. According to the widely respected Gallup poll, his approval ratings declined 11.3 points between the first and third quarters of his first year—the largest of any president. The only other president to see a double-digit dive in approval over the same period of his presidency was Barack Obama, whose approval dived 10.1 points. Trump’s approval rating only declined 4.4 percent.
Biden’s failures appear to be handing the presidency back to Trump; according to a poll obtained by Politico, Trump now leads Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—five states that proved to be decisive in the 2020 election.
“This new data clearly shows that today the voters in these five key states would be happy to return Trump to the White House and send Biden packing,” said Tony Fabrizio, the GOP pollster who conducted the poll.
This is a stunning rebuke of Biden’s presidency, which was supposed to be, according to him, a return to normalcy. But, when it comes down to it, Americans want a secure border, cheaper gas, low inflation, and competence from the White House … and when we lost that, the mean tweets didn’t seem so terrible any more, after all.