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The Democrats Are on Track to Get Clobbered Next Year

AP Photo/Patrick Semansky

Despite the recent passage and signing of the $1 trillion infrastructure bill, Joe Biden’s fortunes haven’t improved, and his poll numbers remain abysmal. His Real Clear Politics spread is now 10.8 points—his worst yet. It’s been nearly three months since his botched Afghanistan withdrawal sent his poll numbers in free fall, and nothing seems to have stopped the bleeding.

While Joe Biden is the one who’s wounded, it’s his party that is on the verge of a bloodbath, as Republicans are now favored 51% to 38% in the latest generic congressional ballot poll from Rasmussen Reports.

“The 13-point edge for Republicans in the latest poll is larger than Democrats enjoyed at any time during the 2018 midterm campaign, due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and a wide advantage among independents,” explains Rasmussen. “While 89% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s candidate, only 77% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 48% would vote Republican and 26% would vote Democrats, with another 17% undecided.”

The only groups that favor the Democrats over Republicans are Democrats, liberals, young people, and black voters. Independent voters prefer the GOP 48% to 26%… a stunning 22 points.

Related: They’re Down by 10 Points, but the Democrats Say the GOP Is ‘Too Dangerous’

“In January 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held an eight-point advantage (45% to 37%) in the generic ballot question,” Rasmussen continued. “That margin narrowed as the November 2018 midterms neared, and was a statistical dead heat — Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% — in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans maintained control of the Senate.”

The current poll would translate to the GOP gaining more seats in 2022 than in 2010, when the Tea Party movement took the country by storm and gained 63 seats.

“I believe an immediate, consistent, and effective Republican application of the lessons of 2021 could lead to a 40- to 70-seat gain in the House; at least a four-seat gain in the Senate; and gains in governorships, state legislatures, and local offices including school boards next year,” former House Speaker Newt Gingrich predicted earlier this month.

Could the GOP gain 70 seats next year? Of course, a lot can happen in a year, but given the way Biden has failed to recover since Afghanistan fell to the Taliban, it’s hard to see his poll numbers improving significantly anytime soon.

Adding to the Democrats’ troubles is the behind-the-scenes conflict between Biden and Kamala Harris that is getting more attention in the media. The White House denies the reports that there’s any friction between the two, but insiders told CNN that Kamala Harris is not happy, and she was apparently snubbed at the signing ceremony of the bipartisan infrastructure bill by the White House announcer. This is a terrible time for there to be infighting in the White House, and this conflict serves as another problem facing Democrats. Such a conflict between Biden and Harris can only hurt the Democrats going forward as divided loyalties could set the stage for embarrassing leaks and continued dysfunction in the White House.

In short, things look really bad for Democrats.

Really bad.