In crisis communications, you can’t beat something with nothing. It just doesn’t work that way.
Which means, if the Trump administration doubles down on the “There’s nothing to see here! Why are you people still talking about that creepy Jeffrey Epstein?” argument, it’ll permanently divide the base, demotivate Trump’s supporters, and do more to elevate Democrats than a thousand “Fighting Oligarchy” tour stops.
This is serious stuff.
In the 2026 midterms, the GOP will already be at a historic disadvantage: The party in power almost always takes it on the chin. (During the 2018 midterms, Republicans lost 40 seats in the House, giving the Democrats a majority.) Historical trends — plus the Epstein fallout — will be too much to overcome.
Sorry, folks: I’ve gotta call it as I see it. I know this isn’t fun to read on a Monday morning, but alas, these are the current trendlines.
So the Democrats will take over the House in 2026, and during the final two years of Trump’s second term, the president will be harassed by constant subpoenas, bogus House investigations, and another cycle of impeachments. No conservative legislation will be passed; Trump’s actions will be limited to executive orders.
Meanwhile, the GOP’s once-vaunted unity will be fractured beyond all repair, because too many in the MAGA base view the Epstein “betrayal” as “Read My Lips, Part II.”
How did we get into this mess? And more importantly, how do we solve it?
The first error of the Trump administration was organizational: President Trump assumed office for the second time on Jan. 20, 2025 — 175 days ago. Whoever’s responsible for Trump’s communication strategy should’ve reached out to every cabinet head and every agency leader at the very beginning and gotten a list of the 10 highest-profile issues on their plate. (For the FBI and Kash Patel, that would certainly include the Epstein file release.)
And then, they should’ve developed a comprehensive PR plan for every major issue.
Look, I’ve been effusive in my praise of Karoline Leavitt. I think she’s heads-and-shoulders better than all of Trump’s previous White House press secretaries — she’s smart as a whip — and she’s an absolute rockstar at the podium. And I’ll even concede that she’s just one person on a much larger communication team, so it’s unfair to point fingers at any one individual.
But if not Karoline, someone needed to sound the alarm.
This Epstein messaging is an absolute mess. Whoever “owns” the Trump administration’s communications better get their arms around this ASAP.
Karoline (or whoever): For God’s sake, reach out to every cabinet and agency leader and develop a comprehensive crisis communications plan for their 10 biggest issues! This. Still. Needs. To. Be. Done!
Yet the worst PR missteps were from Attorney General Pam Bondi.
It’s surprising because Bondi was Trump’s most experienced, most battle-tested cabinet pick: A guy like Pete Hegseth, for example, had a much steeper learning curve than Bondi, who served as Florida’s attorney general for eight long years. (And if you know anything about Florida Man, you know that ain’t dull work.)
Florida is the third-biggest state in the country. Bondi is no stranger to high-profile legal cases. But for reasons that remain unclear, she horrendously mismanaged expectations of the Epstein file. She made the media rounds, fanned the flames, overpromised, and underdelivered.
And today, MAGA feels betrayed.
So, how does Trump solve this?
Well, not like this:
Instead, Trump should deliver a primetime speech. Explain to the American people who the hell Jeffrey Epstein was and separate the truth from fiction: Is there really a client list? Was Epstein working for an intelligence agency (foreign or domestic)? Was it a blackmail scheme? How many children were trafficked and/or abused? Where are these kids today? Can we hold these disgusting rapists accountable? Why did Epstein receive preferential legal treatment? Where did he get so much money? Did he really kill himself? If so, how do we know?
Don’t double down on stonewalling; double down on transparency.
Pull back the curtain and tell us the truth. (Even if the truth isn’t as sensational as the YouTube conspiracy crowd would want us to believe.)
In crisis communications, the way you kill a “bad” story is by replacing it with a less harmful story — and nine times out of 10, the story that’s more credible and more entertaining will prevail.
Today, you have people like Tucker Carlson telling audiences point-blank that Jeffrey Epstein was a Mossad agent, working on behalf of Israel, running a blackmail operation that directly led to an untold number of little American girls being raped — and therefore, Israel should receive no more American aid until they come clean.
Maybe Carlson is right. Or maybe he’s an antisemite. (Or, perhaps, he’s in the business of monetizing conspiracies and contrarianism, and connecting Epstein to Jews/Israel is just good business.) Either way, it’s worth noting that Israel flatly rejects Carlson’s allegations:
As a former Israeli Prime Minister, with the Mossad having reported directly to me, I say to you with 100% certainty:
— Naftali Bennett נפתלי בנט (@naftalibennett) July 14, 2025
The accusation that Jeffrey Epstein somehow worked for Israel or the Mossad running a blackmail ring is categorically and totally false.
Epstein’s conduct,…
But until President Trump goes on the record with a primetime address, the Carlson explanation will prevail: It’s more entertaining AND more believable than Trump’s Truth Social post.
That’s a big problem for MAGA, because if Carlson’s theory is right, then Trump is indifferent to little girls being raped; he’s covering up sex crimes; he doesn’t tell the truth; he breaks promises; and he lets foreign nations abuse our children with near-total impunity.
(Not exactly “America First” behavior, is it?)
MAGA is at the crossroads. I hope the Trump administration will do the right thing, but it's running out of time.
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