Republicans have surprising opportunities to flip Democrat seats in a year everyone expects to go badly for the GOP. The pundits wrote the party's obituary for Nov. 3 months ago, and the national numbers give them plenty of material. But voters decide elections state by state, and several states are telling a far more encouraging story.
But, before anyone concedes anything, look at the map. Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats. Every seat the GOP flips forces Democrats to find a replacement in more conservative territory. Most of these states were close between Trump and Kamala Harris in 2024.
Even Newsweek concedes that four Democrat-held Senate seats and three Democrat-held governorships are within reach, and winning even one or two of them would scramble the left's entire plan for November.
The headwinds are real. Democrats led the RealClearPolitics generic ballot average by 8.3 points as of Friday, close to their 8.6-point margin in 2018. A YouGov poll put President Donald Trump's approval at 36%, with 62% disapproving, and only 27% said the country is headed in the right direction. Gas averaged $4.396 a gallon on Friday, driven up by the Iran War and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Shawn Donahue, a University at Buffalo political science professor, credits the shift to an undertow pulling Republicans down more than anything Democrats are doing well.
Michigan is the best Senate shot, according to Newsweek. Trump carried it by about 1.4 points, and Democrats nominated socialist Abdul El-Sayed. Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers trails 50% to 49% in a Fox News poll, and the Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up. Donahue said Michigan and Minnesota look more competitive because Democrats picked candidates from their left flank over more palatable moderates.
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Minnesota tells a similar story. Kamala won the state by just over four points — an incredibly weak performance considering her running mate was the sitting governor of the state. Nevertheless, it’s a reliably blue state; Republican Michele Tafoya trails Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D-Minn.) 46% to 45% in an InsiderAdvantage poll, and SurveyUSA had the race tied at 42%. Republicans are tying Flanagan to the $250 million Feeding Our Future fraud scandal that erupted under Gov. Tim Walz (D-Minn.).
In New Hampshire, former Sen. John Sununu, who comes from one of the state's most popular political families, has pulled within five points of Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) in a New York Times/Siena poll, and Cook just moved that race to a toss-up. Newsweek included Georgia as a long shot, but recent reports say the GOP is diverting resources from Georgia elsewhere.
Still, every Democrat-to-Republican flip this year is disrupting Democrats’ plans to take over the Senate.
The governor's races look even better. Donahue said those contests defy national headwinds more often because they turn on local issues, especially when one party has held power for about eight years. That's why deep-blue Vermont has a Republican governor.
Kansas, which Trump won by sixteen points, is the likeliest flip. Republican Ty Masterson leads Democrat Cindy Holscher 51% to 44% in an Emerson College poll. In Wisconsin, the closest state of 2024, Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.) raised $26 million last quarter and trails Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley by three points in a Marquette Law School poll with a 4.8-point margin of error.
Then there's Oregon. Kamala won it by fourteen points, and Republicans haven't elected a governor there since 1982. Yet Republican Christine Drazan leads Gov. Tina Kotek (D-Ore.) 47% to 46% in a DHM Research poll that found 58% of Oregonians think the state is on the wrong track. Cook has already shifted the race toward Republicans.
Turnout is the challenge, and Republicans can't afford to stay home. But history is on their side. In 2018, with the national environment against them, Republicans flipped Senate seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota. Cook now calls Senate control a true toss-up. The GOP has some promising opportunities this year, and the blue wave may hit a wall in the states Democrats assumed were safe.
