There’s been a lot of debate over what the end of the war with Iran should look like, and many believe that the only true victory would include regime change. The mullahs could lose their nuclear facilities and their top commanders, but as long as they held power, the threat would remain. Now, a leaked document from inside the regime itself suggests the Islamic Republic may be closer to collapse than anyone realized.
If so, that would be a huge win for the Middle East — and the world.
IranWire reported on July 13 that it obtained a confidential report prepared for Iran's presidency, and the findings are stunning. The document, titled "What Iran Wants," came from Ali Rabiei, a social adviser to President Masoud Pezeshkian and a former government spokesman. The Ara Opinion Research Center conducted the underlying polling in May, and the report circulated among Iranian government institutions in June.
So, what did the regime's own pollsters find?
Only 9% of respondents want to keep the current system. A full 53% want fundamental or structural reforms, and more than 19% want to replace the political system outright. Add it up, and nearly three-quarters of Iranians back deep reform or full replacement. This crisis goes well beyond anger at any individual leader or policy.
The misery behind those numbers is staggering. About 64% of respondents reported persistent anger, up roughly 12 points from a government survey taken last December. Half reported hopelessness. More than 81% said they have severe or partial difficulty getting enough food, 75% struggle to cover medical costs, and only 8% earn enough to save anything.
And who do Iranians blame? Their own government. Asked about the country's economic problems, 46.9% cited government inefficiency and 26.3% cited corruption, while just 20.7% pointed to foreign sanctions. That finding cuts the legs out from under the regime's favorite excuse, because most Iranians clearly aren't buying the line that outside powers caused their suffering.
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Miad Maleki, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital that the report should prompt a fresh assessment of the potential for political upheaval inside Iran.
"If anything, this research understates the depth of Iranians' rage," Maleki said. "And that is what makes it remarkable: even a survey prepared for the regime's own president, by its own pollsters, records anger levels above 63%, well beyond the highest rate Gallup has ever recorded anywhere in the world, alongside 81% struggling to put food on the table and a majority expressing hopelessness."
Maleki also warned that polling conducted under an authoritarian government can never be treated as precise. "In a police state where expressing the wrong opinion can cost you your job, your freedom, or your life, respondents self-censor, which means these findings are best read as a floor, not a ceiling," he said.
Some caution is warranted here. The material IranWire obtained didn't include the full survey methodology, so nobody can verify how respondents were selected or whether the sample matched Iran's demographics. And deep dissatisfaction doesn't automatically become an organized movement capable of toppling a government.
Maleki said the findings match a growing pattern of unrest, with protests spreading from more than 80 cities in 2017 to more than 200 across all 31 provinces this year. He also noted the regime has spent decades building the machinery to crush organized opposition.
"This regime was born of revolution, by revolutionaries," Maleki said. "Preventing and crushing the next one is the one thing they genuinely know how to do."
"So the discontent will translate into renewed protest," he added. "The question is not if, but when, and whether anyone is prepared to stand with the Iranian people when it does."
When that moment comes, America should stand with the Iranian people. Their own government's numbers prove they're ready for something better.
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