After more than a month of the Schumer Shutdown, Democrats are on the verge of caving, but Democrats weren’t ready to give up without one last power play attempt. And this one was a real doozy.
The holdup centers on Obamacare subsidies set to expire on December 31. Democrats wanted Senate Republicans to allow a vote on extending those subsidies under a simple majority threshold, meaning they'd only need 51 votes instead of the usual 60. Thune shut that down immediately, calling out the absurdity of the request.
"Honestly, think about what the Democrats are asking us to do here," Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters. "They're saying it's going to take 60 just to fund the government, but we want to have a vote on a massive sort of piece of health care legislation at 51."
Translation: Democrats wanted Republicans to use the 60-vote threshold to reopen the government while getting a sweetheart deal to ram through a massively expensive major health care extension with just 51 votes. Thune made clear there was "no way" that would happen, and rightfully so. The Democrats tried to play cute, but Republicans weren't falling for it.
Despite the gamesmanship, rank-and-file lawmakers on both sides are approaching a deal that could reopen the government and allow for additional health care negotiations down the road. The framework includes advancing a new stopgap spending bill, moving some full-year appropriations bills, and guaranteeing a Senate vote on the Obamacare subsidies once the government reopens. That last part is key because if this strategy works out, exchanging a shutdown vote for a vote on Obamacare subsidies could give Congress an excellent opportunity to reform Obamacare instead of just throwing money at it. I’m still hoping for an all out repeal, but, you know, baby steps.
Thune said he was open to another possibility under discussion: attaching the full-year Agriculture-FDA, Military Construction-VA and Legislative Branch appropriations bills to an updated stopgap.
The terms of the health care vote are not the only sticking point. Republicans are divided over how long a temporary funding bill should run that would allow lawmakers to write new long-term spending legislation. Thune previously told POLITICO he believes the stopgap needs to go into 2026 but hasn’t ruled out a tighter timeline favored by some GOP appropriators.
Republicans remain divided on how long the temporary funding extension should last. Thune previously indicated he believes the stopgap measure should extend into 2026 but hasn't ruled out a shorter timeline supported by some GOP appropriators. Speaker Mike Johnson, meanwhile, wants to avoid a "holiday-season jam" and opposes extending funding only into December. "I'm not a fan of extending it to December," Johnson said.
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House Republicans are under pressure from hard-liners to push the stopgap funding deadline into March or later, aiming to gain leverage for policy concessions. Senate Majority Whip John Thune said a new stopgap could reach the House by week’s end, with senators willing to work into the weekend to end the Schumer Shutdown. Speaker Johnson indicated the House could return as early as Saturday if the Senate passes a deal by Thursday.
The Schumer Shutdown may be ending soon, but Democrats just learned a harsh lesson in legislative reality. Their attempt to use the government shutdown as leverage to fund their pet projects failed because Republicans refused to play along. There had been some support from the GOP to extend the subsidies again, and I suspect that if Democrats hadn’t abused the filibuster to shutdown the government, Thune wouldn’t have kiboshed the 51-vote majority for them. Going forward, Democrats may think twice before abusing the filibuster or holding the government hostage, knowing that Republicans now have both the experience and the discipline to call out these maneuvers and hold the line.
