President Donald Trump dropped a political bomb Thursday night, calling on Senate Republicans to nuke the filibuster and break the government shutdown that's been grinding on for a month now. It was inevitable that Trump would suggest this course of action, and while Republicans have been divided on this course of action, it remains to be seen whether things will change now that he’s weighed in. But, perhaps the bigger question is whether it’s even a good idea.
"It now time the Republicans play their TRUMP CARD and go what is Nuclear Option Get rid the Filbuster, and get rid of it, NOW," Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social, arguing the move would "IMMEDIATELY end this ridiculous, Country destroying 'SHUT DOWN.'" His reasoning? Democrats would do it in a heartbeat if the shoe were on the other foot, so why should Republicans keep playing nice?
He's got a point.
Democrats have a well-documented history of treating the filibuster like a light switch, flipping it on and off depending on whether it suits their political needs. Remember when they weaponized it during George W. Bush's presidency to block his judicial nominees? That was totally fine, according to the Democrats. But the second Republicans turned around and used the same tactic during the Obama years, suddenly the filibuster became an "anti-democratic" tool and a "racist relic" of Jim Crow. The hypocrisy was stunning.
Then-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid proved just how flexible Democratic principles are when he nuked the filibuster for lower-court nominations back in 2013. Of course, that brilliant tactical decision backfired spectacularly when Trump waltzed into office and used that very same rule change to confirm a record number of conservative judges during his first term. Oops.
Fast forward to 2021, and Democrats were inches away from nuking the legislative filibuster to ram through their massive election takeover bills. We're talking about legislation that would have resulted in the complete federal takeover of elections, forced universal mail-in voting nationwide, gutted safeguards, and even laid the groundwork to abolish the Electoral College. It was only because of Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema that it didn’t happen, and both paid huge political prices for it.
So when Trump says Democrats will dump the filibuster the moment it becomes inconvenient, he's not being paranoid. He's being realistic. The next time Democrats control the Senate and the filibuster stands between them and their agenda, it's toast. So, trust me, it's not a question of if they nuke the filibuster, but when.
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Which brings us to the tough calculus Republicans are facing right now. Should they beat Democrats to the punch and eliminate the filibuster themselves? The argument for doing so is straightforward: If it's going to die anyway, why not use it while you've got the chance to actually accomplish something? On the flip side, why hand Democrats a filibuster-free Senate on a silver platter when they eventually take control again?
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Theoretically, they have the votes to trigger the nuclear option, which requires only a simple majority of 51 senators. But Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a committed institutionalist, has previously ruled out weakening the 60-vote threshold. And while some GOP senators are open to the idea, many aren't, meaning that Trump might not have the 51 votes he needs.
Trump's filibuster gambit could completely reshape how this plays out. The question is whether Senate Republicans have the guts to pull the trigger.
There are better options on the table. I’ve suggested two before. Republicans could bring back the talking filibuster, forcing senators to actually hold the floor if they want to block legislation. Or they could temporarily suspend the filibuster just to pass this continuing resolution and then restore it afterward. There’s even a third option I haven’t mentioned: eliminate the filibuster only for clean CRs, leaving it in place for everything else.
We all know the filibuster is on its deathbed, but I hate the idea of the GOP being the party that ultimately kills it.
