Once in Tampa Bay, I saw a big fat guy on a motorcycle. He was riding without a helmet — while chain-smoking cigarettes — and gripping a bag of Arby’s takeout.
That’s right: ARBY’S! (Gasp!) What a maniac!
I thought, “Wow, talk about not caring about your health even a little bit.”
Of course, it’s entirely possible that the guy was the pinnacle of health and fitness, with a lower cholesterol level than me. It’s possible he’ll live to 100, smoking Marlboros and gorging on Arby’s long after we’re all dead and buried.
You never know for sure.
Genetic diversity is a real thing in medicine. That’s why you always need to get your numbers checked before you begin a treatment plan.
PR and medicine are similar: They both rely on general principles — broad, sweeping strokes that work most of the time — but until it’s tailored for your personal situation, the “solution” can cause more harm than good.
Which is why I hate offering PR/marketing advice until I understand someone’s profit model. Because, if your objective is maximizing revenue, then the metrics associated with your profit model are where we need to begin.
Otherwise, I’m just spitballing fun ideas.
In medicine, the meaningful metrics are derived via bloodwork and testing. In business PR, we create a “metrics dashboard” that tracks the stats that drive revenue, such as incoming calls, social media engagements, sales numbers, raw orders, news coverage, and foot traffic.
And in political PR, we use polling, election results, financial support, media coverage, and audience engagement.
I’ll give you a quick example: Last week, when President Trump addressed the nation and rebooted his PR response to the so-called “affordability crisis,” I was the only one in media who graded it an A.
The majority of the media coverage — including conservative media, I’m afraid — was overwhelmingly negative. Trump yelled too much. He spoke too fast. He spent too much time blaming Biden. He assumed no responsibility.
But from my perspective, Trump told the American people a clear, concise story: Biden broke it, Trump fixed it, and a new Golden Age is on the horizon.
His storytelling was on-point; it followed PR principles with absolute precision. (And perceptually, it’s far wiser for a 79-year-old chief executive to be seen as too high-energy than too slow, soft, and sleepy.)
But we needed polling numbers to track the metrics and verify this assumption.
And now, we got ‘em. (Credit to my colleague, Michael Cantrell, for covering the story.)
Here’s how the New York Post described it:
President Trump received some rare good polling news Monday as a new survey shows him with his highest approval rating since early fall.
The poll of likely voters by InsiderAdvantage shows 50% approve of the job Trump is doing while 41% disapprove, with the remaining 9% undecided.
Monday’s results mark the highest raw approval rating for the president in an InsiderAdvantage survey since late September, when 52% of respondents approved of his performance.
[…]
The nine-percentage-point net approval rating for Trump is the highest since mid-August, when 54% gave Trump a positive approval rating and 44% gave him a negative approval rating, a spread of 10 percentage points.
“This survey was conducted after Trump’s speech to the nation [Dec. 17] and after the release of the most recent CPI inflation report,” said InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery.
So immediately after Trump gave his national TV address, his numbers jumped nine points. We have a clear and obvious cause and effect, verifying his “A” grade.
Here, the numbers make sense.
But they don’t always make sense. Sometimes, the numbers and the media coverage are bitterly at odds.
And this brings us to the MAGA debate over Israel that’s (allegedly) dividing our movement. Just look at the recent headlines:
Newsweek: Republicans Are Turning Against Israel, Polls Show
CNN: Ben Shapiro and Tucker Carlson Clash Over the MAGA Movement’s Direction
Vanity Fair: Megyn Kelly Talks Ben Shapiro’s “Betrayal” and the MAGA Reckoning at AmericaFest
Axios: MAGA Media Mess Deepens at Turning Point USA Convention
Mediaite: Bannon Joins Shapiro Pile-On at TPUSA Event: ‘Ben, I’ve Known You for a Long Time…’
Washington Post: Tucker Carlson Inflames a Raging Battle for MAGA’s Future
Salon: MAGA Infighting and Divisions Surface at TPUSA Conference
UnHerd: Will MAGA Survive Its Civil War? Infighting Has Engulfed the Right
New Republic: Turning Point USA Conference Devolved Into MAGA War
CNN: Turning Point Exposed a Brewing MAGA Civil War. Can JD Vance Unite It?
Mediaite: Megyn Kelly Says Ben Shapiro Is ‘Making Anti-Semites’ With ‘Israel First’ Rhetoric
NBC News: MAGA Infighting Over Israel and 2028 Heats Up at the Turning Point USA Conference
Oy veh! The media coverage tells a very specific story: “Israel First” versus “America First.” A MAGA civil war. Infighting, divisions, and rising antisemitism.
What’s gotten far less coverage are the actual numbers of GOP/MAGA support for Israel — because they’re telling another story altogether.
Asked what the biggest threat is facing America, 31,008 [of TPUSA attendees] responded "radical Islam." In close second was socialism and Marxism at 30,387.
[…]
Attendees were also questioned on their feelings about Israel. Over half, 53.4 percent, said they see Israel as "one ally out of many," while a third said they see Israel as America's "top ally" and 13.3 percent said they believe Israel is "not an ally."
Remember, TPUSA attendees are the heart of our movement — the tip of the GOP spear — representing our boots-on-the-ground activists, supporters, and MAGA foot soldiers.
And 86.7% of them say Israel is an American ally — with 1 out of 3 saying it’s America’s greatest ally. That’s a landslide victory!
Only about one in 10 are anti-Israel.
Which means, if this were REALLY a “MAGA civil war,” the anti-Israel side would be outnumbered by roughly 10 to one.
That’s no civil war! It’d be like a nail declaring war on a hammer!
It also seems to show that the pro-GOP/Israel side is actually growing: A Gallup poll in July of 2025 claimed that GOP support for Israel’s war in Gaza had increased by five points:
In contrast [to Democrats and independents], 71% of Republicans say they approve of Israel’s action in Gaza, up from 66% in September. [emphasis added]
And all this happened while anti-Israel advocates, i.e. Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Steve Bannon, Candace Owens, and Nick Fuentes, were pounding the war drums, urging conservatives to abandon Israel. (Getting plenty of news coverage in the process, of course.)
First, the polls jumped from 66% in Sept. 2025 to 71% in July of 2025 — and then to 86.7% in Dec. of 2025 amongst our most passionate grassroots activists.
It’s not an apples-to-apples comparison, but we’re still talking a 20+ point swing!
Something VERY fishy is going on with the conservative “split” over Israel: It’s simply not happening.
If it were, the numbers would look dramatically different.
So what the heck is going on?!
The answer, I suspect, is that Tucker Carlson has worked in media for a very long time. He’s been a writer, an on-air talent, and the owner of media companies.
Which means, he’s a PR pro, too.
And he’s a great one, because he fully understands his own profit model: He needs clicks, controversy — and above all else, attention — to maximize his revenue.
Goading Ben Shapiro into responding the way he did will make Tucker a lot of money.
Have you ever noticed that fast food restaurants tend to choose locations near other fast food restaurants? I’ll bet you know streets in your city with a McDonald’s, Burger King, and even a (Gasp!) Arby’s side-by-side.
You know why they’re there?
‘Cause that’s where the money is!
It’s the same deal in the podcast business: If Carlson discovered a schtick that works, others are gonna copy it.
The same way Carlson copied the schtick of Nick Fuentes and Candace Owens.
Never forget: “The answer to all your questions is money.”
Saying outrageous things that offend and provoke is the name of the game in the shock-jock business. Back in the 1990s, Howard Stern was the best at it.
And his ultimate goal was to say something so outrageous — so scandalous and over-the-top — that others in the media were forced to pay attention to him. He sought to be the #1 topic of discussion.
‘Cause that’s where the money was.
In Stern’s heyday, we were shocked by sex, peeing/pooping, and bawdy humor. But today, with the Internet, that stuff is passé. Stern’s “lesbian dial-a-date” schtick wouldn’t move the needle.
Instead, we’re shocked by political extremism, antisemitism, and conspiracy theories.
Saying crazy political garbage with a straight face is shocking. It’s a helluva train wreck — draws very large crowds — and generates millions of clicks. (Ca-ching!)
It’s great for clicks — but it’s lousy for persuasion.
In fact, the metrics seem to show that the more Fuentes/Carlson speaks, the more popular Israel becomes within the MAGA movement!
That’s why Shapiro should’ve been smarter and avoided taking the bait at TPUSA. By treating fringe carnival barkers like serious pundits, he unduly elevated their profiles, promoted their arguments, publicized their message, and spiked clicks/views for their profit models. It was a stupid, self-destructive strategy that did more harm than good.
When 86.7% of the audience agrees with you, for the love of God, don’t amplify the arguments of the fringe 13.3%!
(And besides, I suspect a hefty percentage of that 13.3% wouldn’t be moved by a logical counterargument anyway, because they didn’t reach their anti-Israel opinions via logic in the first place. Sadly, an awful lot of ‘em were motivated by something else.)
Assuming, of course, that Ben Shapiro’s true objective was helping MAGA.
After all, just like Tucker Carlson, Shapiro has been a writer, an on-air talent, and a media owner, too. Which means, he’s also a PR pro.
A damn good one.
And in one TPUSA speech, he successfully generated an awful lot of attention for himself. If that was his true objective, Shapiro’s speech was a smashing success.
Beh. I’d rather eat at Arby’s.
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