Republicans across the South are gearing up for what could become the biggest political map shakeup in decades, and it all hinges on one thing: the Supreme Court’s expected ruling on Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. For most of the past half-century, that section has required states to draw “majority-minority” districts, which are districts designed to elect minority candidates, who overwhelmingly happen to be Democrats.
In plain English, it’s been a race-based political firewall protecting Democratic power. But that firewall might be about to crumble.
“While such a decision is no sure thing, some states are nonetheless planning for the scenario,” reports Politico. “The potential scramble to redraw could completely reshape the midterms, and Democrats are already sounding the alarm.”
If the court decides that drawing districts based on race violates the Constitution, Republicans could pick up as many as 19 new seats. Nineteen. This, of course, would be devastating for the Democrats, and they’re responding with the usual claims of “disenfranchisement” and “attacks on democracy,” which is code for losing their corrupt structural advantages.
In South Carolina, Republican leaders are practically salivating at the chance to finally unseat Rep. Jim Clyburn, the last remaining Democrat in their congressional delegation. Lt. Governor Pamela Evette, currently running for governor, didn’t sugarcoat it. “If we could achieve a clean sweep, I would be thrilled,” she said. And who can blame her? Clyburn doesn’t earn his seat; his seat is protected by a racist provision of the Voting Rights Act.
This won't be limited to one state. Alabama, Louisiana, Georgia, Mississippi, and Texas are all preparing for what could be the most consequential redistricting since post-census lines were previously drawn. The strategy is simple: with the legal leash loosened, GOP-led legislatures will be free to redraw maps that reflect reality rather than racial engineering. President Donald Trump has urged states for months to take the initiative. Don’t wait for 2030, he said; fix the maps now.
Predictably, Democrats call the effort racist because they call everything racist. But the truth is that race-based districts are relics of a bygone political era. Harmeet Dhillon, who heads the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division, recently sent Texas officials a letter blasting so-called “coalition districts” as leftovers from “an unconstitutional racially based gerrymandering past.” If those lines go, Democrats lose their artificial safety net, and they’ll have to win seats by having better ideas that make them more electable.
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And now we see why Democrats are losing their collective minds. It’s not about “protecting minority voters”; it’s about protecting their own ill-gotten safe seats. During oral arguments, the conservative justices didn’t exactly hide their skepticism about the racial engineering that’s defined modern redistricting. Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Neil Gorsuch appeared inclined to bar virtually any use of race in redistricting.
While red states prepare to restore fairness, blue states are ramping up their own partisan contortions. In California, voters will decide on November 5 on Proposition 50, a measure allowing a mid-cycle redraw to help Democrats pad their majority. Despite the move, analyses have shown that there are simply fewer seats for Democrats to gain because blue states are already heavily gerrymandered in their favor. States like Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Mexico, and New Hampshire have zero Republican seats in the House despite having a significantly large share of Republican voters.
If the court does gut Section 2 — as indicators suggest it will — the shift will redefine the midterms. Democrats may shout about fairness, but fairness cuts both ways. For too long, their “majority-minority” districts have diluted Republican representation under the pretense of virtue. Now that era could finally be ending.
Trump summed up the sentiment perfectly when asked about the coming redistricting wave: “They did it to us.” The difference this time is, Republicans aren’t sitting back and taking it. They’re getting ready to take the map and the House back into their own hands.
Editor’s Note: The Schumer Shutdown is still ongoing, and polls are now showing Americans are increasingly blaming the Democrats for this mess, and Democrats are on the verge of caving.
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