It’s time to get over the high of winning the White House, Senate, and House in the 2024 elections. As you know, Senate Democrats filibustered the "Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act," proving once again they'd rather pander to radical gender ideologues than protect female athletes. We may have a 53-47 majority, but we're still frustratingly short of that magical 60-vote threshold needed to overcome the Democrats' obstructionist filibuster tactics. This is exactly why Republicans need to expand their majority in 2026.
NRSC Chair Tim Scott is thinking big, setting an ambitious target of 55 GOP Senate seats after the midterms. "The bottom line is, I believe that we can defend our current seats while adding at least two more seats to our numbers." Scott declared last week. He's even calling it his "55-seat strategy," a stretch goal that would put Republicans within striking distance of a filibuster-proof majority.
But what about the chances of a 60-seat majority? Let’s see.
The Democrats face a brutal 2026 map. Georgia's Jon Ossoff is defending his seat in a state Trump just won by a little over two points. I suspect this will be a relatively easy flip.
Michigan presents another pickup opportunity with Democrat Gary Peters retiring. The state narrowly voted for Trump in 2024. Republican Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost to Elissa Slotkin in 2024 by just 0.3 points, could be the perfect candidate to flip this seat should he choose to run.
Minnesota's Senate seat is now open with Tina Smith's retirement, and Scott considers it a serious target. "Minnesota is an open seat. That's a four-point state," he noted, adding that Republicans can "bring home another red seat in Minnesota for the first time in a long time.”
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Scott claims that the NRSC has already spoken with "two very highly qualified candidates" just for Minnesota, with more recruitment efforts underway elsewhere. New Hampshire could also fall to Republicans if Jeanne Shaheen proves vulnerable in that evenly rated state.
Virginia might seem like a long shot, but outgoing Gov. Glenn Youngkin has proven that Republicans can win statewide. If Sen. Mark Warner decides to retire, it could open the door for a competitive race, providing a real opportunity for Republicans to pick up this seat.
Of course, we need a couple more to get to 60 votes.
New Mexico is a long shot, but not impossible. Kamala Harris won the state by just six points in 2024, the smallest margin of any recent Democrat. While Sen. Ben Ray Luján holds an advantage with his incumbency and the state’s Democratic tilt, the right circumstances — such as a strong Republican candidate and shifting local or national conditions — could make this race competitive.
Finally, New Jersey, though historically a blue state, could also be in play. Cory Booker’s seat seems secure, but the surprising narrowness of Harris’s 2024 victory in the state suggests a growing voter dissatisfaction that Republicans could leverage with the right candidate. Conservative activist Scott Pressler’s efforts to register Republicans there could help make this race more competitive than many expect.
Democrats, of course, want to flip the Senate, which is a very, very, very tall order based on 2026’s map. They need to flip four Senate seats to take control, or three for a 50-50 tie, which would still give Republicans the advantage with VP Vance’s tie-breaking vote. Their best (and perhaps only) chances are defeating Sen. Susan Collins in Maine and Sen. Thom Tillis in North Carolina.
